El Niño raises food-production risks as WMO flags uneven rainfall outlook for South Asia

The effects of El Niño extend beyond rainfall totals. Higher temperatures can increase water demand, place stress on livestock and reduce the number of safe working hours for agricultural labourers.

The WMO has also highlighted risks to fisheries from warmer ocean waters, including marine heatwaves and coral bleaching. Such conditions can affect marine ecosystems and the income of communities dependent on fishing.

In agriculture, the timing of heat and rainfall can be as important as seasonal averages. For example, unusually warm winter and spring conditions can accelerate wheat development and increase water demand, potentially reducing grain yields if heat occurs during sensitive growth stages, according to WMO expert Sebastian Grey.

These risks do not establish that crop losses will occur in India during the current season. Actual impacts will depend on local weather conditions, crop stages, water availability and farmers' ability to respond.

Forecasts can support agricultural planning

The WMO said its network of national meteorological services and regional climate centres provides seasonal outlooks and tailored climate information to help farmers, governments and humanitarian organisations prepare for changing conditions.

Such information can inform decisions on planting, irrigation, water management and preparedness for weather-related disruptions. The organisation also emphasised the role of national meteorological agencies in translating broad climate outlooks into country-level forecasts.

For India, the regional outlook provides context for agricultural planning, but state- and district-level forecasts are needed to assess local risks.

Monitoring updates from the India Meteorological Department and agricultural research institutions will be important for understanding how the evolving El Niño conditions may affect specific crops and growing regions.

The WMO's World Food Day warning underlines the importance of connecting climate forecasts with agricultural decision-making.

While seasonal outlooks cannot determine the exact effects on individual farms, timely information can help farmers and authorities prepare for potential disruptions to food production and rural livelihoods.