Territorial Disputes and NATO Security Guarantees Remain Key Obstacles to Peace

The third round of US-mediated trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States began in Abu Dhabi on November 10, 2026, with the objective of finding a possible resolution to the nearly five-year-long Russia-Ukraine war. The negotiations follow US President Donald Trump’s renewed push for a peace agreement and discussions between American officials, Ukraine and NATO representatives.

The talks are expected to focus on three major issues: territorial disputes, post-war security guarantees for Ukraine and the future of Europe's security framework. However, differences between Moscow and Kyiv over territorial concessions and NATO's role remain significant obstacles to reaching an agreement.

Earlier rounds of negotiations in Istanbul in 2025 and Geneva in February 2026 failed to produce a breakthrough. Russia had demanded that Ukraine surrender the entire Donbas region, while Kyiv rejected the proposal and called for an unconditional ceasefire.

Russia currently controls Crimea, annexed in 2014, and substantial parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Moscow has also claimed Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as Russian territory. Ukraine has consistently opposed territorial concessions, arguing that they would undermine its sovereignty.

Another major concern for Kyiv is securing guarantees against future Russian military aggression. Ukraine has previously sought NATO membership as a means of obtaining collective security protection, while Moscow views NATO's eastward expansion as a threat to its national security.

European Security, US Midterm Elections and India's Diplomatic Role

The negotiations have also raised questions about Europe's role in shaping a post-war security arrangement. Russia has opposed the participation of European countries in the main negotiations and wants broader discussions on Europe's future security architecture.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has argued that establishing the framework for European security should be part of the discussions. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has maintained that wider security negotiations should take place only after a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The US midterm election results have added another dimension to the diplomatic process. The Democratic Party's victory and its expected control of Congress from January could increase pressure on the Trump administration to provide greater military assistance to Ukraine and impose tougher sanctions on Russia. However, changes in congressional control do not automatically translate into a shift in US foreign policy.

India has also emerged as an important diplomatic interlocutor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the Abu Dhabi negotiations, briefing him on the preparations and seeking India's support in facilitating peace efforts. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also held discussions with his Russian counterpart.

India has expressed willingness to contribute to humanitarian cooperation, including the establishment of food corridors through the Black Sea to address food security concerns.

The success of the negotiations will depend on whether Russia and Ukraine can reach a compromise on territorial demands, security guarantees and the broader European security framework.