Mumbai still awaits monsoon as India grapples with a 64% rainfall deficit

India's southwest monsoon has slowed sharply after an early and promising start, raising concerns over rainfall shortages, water availability and the growing influence of El Nino on the country's weather patterns.

After advancing swiftly into southern and central parts of the country, the monsoon has largely stalled. Satellite imagery indicates a sharp decline in cloud activity across vast regions, resulting in a substantial drop in rainfall over the past two weeks.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received just 19.2 mm of rainfall between 04 June and 15 June, against the normal 53.7 mm for the period. This has left the country facing a rainfall deficit of nearly 64%.

The slowdown has been especially evident along the west coast, where Mumbai continues to await the monsoon despite entering the latter half of June. The city typically receives the monsoon between 09 June and 11 June, but this year's onset has already been delayed by more than a week.

Meteorologists expect the system to take another four to five days before advancing across the remaining parts of Maharashtra and the central Arabian Sea.

Weather agencies say monsoon conditions over Maharashtra and Gujarat have weakened considerably. While some progress is likely after 20 June, widespread and sustained rainfall may not arrive until the final week of the month.

The sluggish monsoon has left large parts of the country unusually dry. Data from 723 districts show that only 103 districts have recorded near-normal rainfall so far. Meanwhile, 236 districts have experienced weak rainfall and another 202 districts have reported very weak rainfall.

Mumbai's driest June in two decades?

Mumbai is now on course to witness one of its driest June months in nearly 20 years.

The Santacruz observatory has recorded only 13.1 mm of rainfall so far this month, while Colaba has received a mere 5 mm. By comparison, Mumbai's average rainfall for June stands at 526.3 mm.

If current conditions persist, June 2026 could rival June 2014, when the city received only 87.3 mm of rainfall, among the lowest June totals on record.

The delayed monsoon is also beginning to strain water resources. Reservoirs across Maharashtra currently hold only about 24.5% of their total storage capacity, while several reservoirs in Gujarat are reporting sharply lower water levels. The Sardar Sarovar reservoir, in particular, is facing a significant storage shortfall.

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown largely to the absence of strong weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, both of which play a critical role in driving monsoon progression across the subcontinent.

At the same time, global climate agencies have confirmed the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon historically associated with weaker monsoons in India.

Since 1950, India has witnessed 16 El Nino years, many of which coincided with drought conditions and substantial rainfall deficits.

With Pacific Ocean temperatures continuing to rise, forecasters warn that El Nino's influence could strengthen further by September, posing an additional challenge to the remainder of India's monsoon season.