Voters Signal Demand for Change, but Political Uncertainty Persists

Israel’s October 28 general election has weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position without decisively ending his influence. The results reflect a dilemma facing Israeli voters since the Hamas attack of October 2023: growing dissatisfaction with the government’s leadership, alongside continued support for strong military action and uncertainty over an alternative political direction.

According to a partial vote count reported by The Times of Israel on Wednesday afternoon, the bloc led by Netanyahu was projected to secure 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot was projected to win 47 seats, while Arab-led parties were projected to secure 19. Neither side had reached the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

The political divide in Israel is shaped by national security, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, settlements in the occupied West Bank, and the relationship between religion and the state. The right generally opposes Palestinian statehood and supports settlements, while the left has traditionally been more open to territorial compromises and negotiations.

However, opposition to Netanyahu does not necessarily indicate support for Palestinian statehood. An October 2025 survey by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies found that 72% of respondents were dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the Gaza war, while 57% expressed satisfaction with the military’s handling of it. This suggests that voters can support military action while questioning the government’s leadership and political decisions.

The election also revives concerns about judicial independence and democratic institutions. In March 2025, the government passed a law increasing its influence over judicial appointments. Another proposed measure, which would allow the Knesset to reinstate laws struck down by the Supreme Court, remains pending.

An Eisenkot-led government could prioritise professional administration, strengthen democratic institutions and adopt a more restrained approach to military objectives. However, it may still support Israeli settlements and oppose Palestinian statehood.

Arab Parties and Coalition Talks Could Decide Israel’s Next Government

Arab-led parties have emerged as crucial players in determining the composition of Israel’s next government. Their electoral performance could influence not only coalition negotiations but also whether Arab citizens’ elected representatives are accepted as legitimate partners in national governance.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party and a former deputy chief of the Israel Defense Forces, urged the opposition to cooperate with Arab parties to establish a government of change. Such cooperation could challenge Netanyahu’s political dominance and the exclusionary approach towards Arab political representation. However, several opposition leaders had previously resisted joining a government dependent on Arab parties, highlighting the difficulties ahead.

Political analyst Yonatan Touval of the Mitvim think tank argued that although the opposition had not completely defeated Netanyahu’s political movement, it had weakened his parliamentary position. The reduced strength of his bloc could limit his ability to advance legislation and influence institutions without wider political support.

Israel’s prime minister is not elected directly by voters. Instead, citizens elect members of the Knesset, and the government must command the confidence of a parliamentary majority. The president assigns the task of forming a government to the legislator considered best placed to secure sufficient support; the largest party does not automatically form the government.

The legislator initially receives 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If unsuccessful, another legislator may receive 28 days. If that attempt also fails, a final procedure allows Knesset members to request that another willing legislator be given 14 days to form a government.

If all attempts fail, the Knesset may be dissolved, triggering fresh elections within 90 days. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu’s outgoing administration continues as the caretaker government.

The outcome therefore leaves Israel facing potentially prolonged coalition negotiations, with the opposition’s ability to cooperate and Arab parties’ role likely to shape the country’s political future.