Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Projected to Decline by 0.4%

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline marginally by 0.4% in 2026 compared with the previous year. However, India is expected to be the only major emitter to witness an increase, with its emissions projected to rise by 4.4%, according to a new study by the Global Carbon Budget.

China, the United States, the European Union and Japan are expected to record declines in fossil fuel emissions. The projected global reduction has been attributed partly to the expansion of solar and wind energy and the energy shock triggered by the ongoing West Asia conflict.

However, researchers have cautioned that the decline may be temporary rather than evidence of a lasting structural shift. Earlier geopolitical and economic disruptions, including those in 1992, 1998 and 2009, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, also resulted in short-term reductions in fossil fuel consumption.

India, which contributes approximately 8% of global emissions, is projected to register higher growth than its average annual increase of 3.5% over the past decade.

Rising Power Demand and Industrial Activity Drive India's Emissions

The increase in India's emissions is partly linked to higher electricity consumption due to rising temperatures and a relatively dry monsoon in 2026. In contrast, favourable pre-monsoon rainfall in 2025 had reduced cooling requirements and electricity demand.

Lower hydropower generation and increased dependence on coal further contributed to emissions. Between April and November 10, 2026, coal-based power generation rose by 13.2% to 846,229.29 million units, compared with the corresponding period in 2025.

Transport fuel consumption also continued to increase. Between January and October 2026, petrol consumption rose by 6.61%, while diesel consumption increased by 5.76%, despite an overall decline in petroleum product consumption.

Meanwhile, an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that India's carbon emissions increased by 3.7% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, largely driven by steel, cement and other industrial sectors.

According to CREA analyst Anubha Aggarwal, the power sector's emissions have remained relatively stable, with clean energy meeting electricity demand growth over the preceding two years. However, industrial dependence on coal remains a major challenge. Greater electrification of steel and other energy-intensive industries will be essential to control India's rising emissions.