Kathmandu on edge: Nepal PM Oli’s street takeover call sets stage for tense Republic Day

Kathmandu is bracing for a confrontation on May 29 that many believe could spiral into violence — and subsequently a major political shift.

In a move that has stunned coalition partners and civil society alike, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has called on his supporters to “take control” of the streets of Kathmandu between 11 am and 2 pm on May 29. It is being seen as an open attempt to block and suppress a pro-monarchist protest scheduled on the same day.

“This is, quite literally, political dictatorship. And the politicians, in the garb of democracy, run Nepal to fill their pockets. They don’t really care about the country,” Neeraj Thapa, a restaurant owner in Thamel, told Education Post.

A self-proclaimed “fan of the king’s rule,” Thapa, 31, went on to add: “The monarchy is far better... they care about Nepal, about Nepalis, and more importantly, about taking the nation forward.”

Speaking to local-level leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) last week, Oli made it clear: “Kathmandu must remain under the control of the UML from 11 (am) to 2 (pm).” His tone was confident, but to many ears, it carried the echoes of incitement rather than leadership.

A Collision Course

The streets of Kathmandu are no stranger to political expression, but rarely have two sides declared such clear intentions to physically outnumber the other.

The pro-monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) has been planning the May 29 protest for weeks.

Describing it as an “indefinite movement,” RPP leaders have framed their call as a demand to restore Nepal’s constitutional monarchy and its identity as a Hindu Rashtra, or certified Hindu nation.

The May 29 rally is expected to be large, and according to RPP chair Rajendra Lingden, “entirely peaceful.”

“We’ve taken every measure to ensure there’s no violence,” Lingden told reporters. “We are not here to confront. We are here to express.”

But the political temperature is rising fast. Oli’s directive to his party machinery, interpreted by many as a green light to counter-protest in force, has turned what might have been a peaceful demonstration into a high-stakes standoff.

Memories of March

Only two months ago, Kathmandu witnessed a similar protest that ended in chaos. A pro-monarchist rally on March 28 descended into violence, leaving two people dead and dozens injured. Property damage was extensive.

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has already warned that “inflammatory rhetoric and aggressive mobilization” could once again place citizens at risk.

“The streets are not warzones,” said NHRC chief Topsi Rana. “They are spaces for democratic engagement. Leaders on all sides must show restraint.”

Tensions Inside the Government

The reaction to Oli’s comments has been far from unified — even within his own coalition.

The Nepali Congress, which shares power in the current government, has distanced itself from his call.

Party spokesperson Prakash Sharan Mahat said, “These remarks are Oli’s alone. The Congress does not endorse any action that might provoke violence or endanger public safety.”

Analysts say the growing rift within the coalition reflects deeper ideological divides, especially on issues like secularism, monarchy, and national identity.

“Oli is playing a high-risk game,” said political commentator Ameet Dhakal. “He's tapping into nationalist sentiment to shore up his base, but he’s also destabilizing an already fragile alliance.”

The underlying concern is that the confrontation could turn deadly, either through planned provocation or the unintended consequences of two large groups occupying the same space, he said.

On the Ground

In anticipation of unrest, security forces are on high alert.

Around 10,000 personnel from the Armed Police Force and Nepal Police have been deployed across key points in the city, per the Ministry of Home Affairs. Surveillance drones are expected to monitor crowd movement, while plainclothes officers will be scattered throughout protest zones.

Many businesses are choosing to shut for the day.

“There’s too much uncertainty,” says Ramesh Tamang, who runs a café in Kalanki. “We’ve seen what can happen when rallies collide. It’s just not worth the risk.”

A Test of Democracy

For ordinary citizens, Republic Day is meant to be a celebration, not confrontation. The date marks Nepal’s transition to a federal democratic republic in 2008, a landmark shift that formally ended centuries of monarchy.

But as the country’s political landscape becomes increasingly polarized, some worry that the republic itself may be slipping into symbolic fragility.

“What’s the point of a republic if we’re governed by show-of-force politics?” asked Meena Sharma, a retired schoolteacher, who has seen three regime changes in her lifetime. “If this is democracy, we need to rethink what it means.”

As Kathmandu rises on the country’s Republic Day, the hope is that peace will prevail, speeches will substitute for batons, and slogans will be louder than sirens.

But many in Nepal aren’t so sure.