Global Drought Forecast, let’s explore it further!

What does drought mean?

Droughts represent times defined by a considerable hydrological deficiency in water supplies or reservoirs, usually indicated by “drier-than-usual” climatic conditions.

These times are mainly caused by insufficient rainfall and can be exacerbated by elevated temperatures or strong winds that increase water evaporation, along with human actions.

Categorization:

Meteorological drought signifies an extended duration of inadequate rainfall.

Agricultural (or ecological) drought describes a situation in which soil moisture is inadequate to satisfy the requirements of crops and plants.

Hydrological drought takes place when the levels of surface or groundwater fall below the average for an extended duration.

Main Conclusions

The worldwide land area impacted by drought increased twofold from 1900 to 2020, with 40% of the Earth facing heightened drought frequency and severity in recent years.

Since 1980, 37% of the world's land has faced a notable decrease in soil moisture. Likewise, worldwide groundwater levels are decreasing, as 62% of observed aquifers show a decline.

The 2022 European drought became up to 20 times more probable due to climate change, which also raised the chances of the current drought in North America by 42%.

Factors Contributing to Droughts

Causes from Nature:

Climate fluctuations, like El Niño and La Niña, influence worldwide weather conditions and may lead to extended periods of drought in certain areas.

Decreased snowfall and melting glaciers lower freshwater supplies over time.

Causes from human activity:

The removal of forests and deterioration of land impair the soil's capacity to hold water and disrupt the regional water cycle.

Urbanization results in soil sealing, hindering water absorption and the replenishment of groundwater.

Unsustainable farming and excessive groundwater extraction, particularly via inefficient irrigation methods, intensify the severity of drought in certain regions.

Effects of Drought

Environmental Impacts: Droughts significantly harm ecosystems like forests, wetlands, and grasslands, resulting in biodiversity loss and decreased plant biomass.

Economic Effects: Droughts affect hydropower generation, industrial activities, and river transport, lowering productivity and heightening energy and food insecurity.

The financial impacts of droughts are increasing worldwide by 3% to 7.5% each year.

Social Effects: They lead to food instability, displacement, water shortages, and loss of income, particularly impacting marginalized and at-risk populations.

Droughts make up just 6% of natural disasters yet lead to 34% of all deaths associated with disasters.

Essential Suggestions

Funding for Drought Resilience: Each dollar invested in drought mitigation returns between USD 2 to 3 in advantages, while certain resilience initiatives can provide up to ten times the ROI.

Ecosystem and Land Use Management: Restoring ecosystems enhances water retention and soil quality. Crops that withstand drought and farming practices that adapt aid in safeguarding food systems.

Intersectoral Measures: Integrate energy, transportation, infrastructure, and city planning into drought resilience approaches.

Enhancements in irrigation efficiency could reduce worldwide water consumption by 76%.