Bihar poll results: Prashant Kishor’s big plunge falls flat as Jan Suraaj fails to lead anywhere

Prashant Kishor’s much-watched political debut has turned into a dramatic washout, with his Jan Suraaj party failing to lead in even a single constituency as Bihar’s 2025 Assembly results tilt decisively toward the NDA.

Early trends show the NDA opening a formidable lead, powered by Nitish Kumar’s resurgent JD(U) and a strengthened coalition backed by women voters, caste recalibrations, and the return of key allies. With tallies showing BJP at 87, JD(U) at 79, RJD at 31, LJP (RV) at 21, CPI(ML)-L at 6, Congress at 5 and AIMIM at 4, the Mahagathbandhan is staring at a deep deficit.

Nitish Kumar leads the charge as NDA banks on women voters, caste blocs, allies

The JD(U) is leading in 73 seats, even ahead of the BJP — a remarkable political comeback for Nitish Kumar, whose leadership has been the fulcrum of this election. The NDA’s confidence stems from three pillars:
• Nitish’s political capital, tested yet intact as he reasserts primacy within his alliance.
• Women voters, mobilised through the “dashazari” Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana via Jeevika groups — a constituency the NDA believes could once again prove decisive.
• Expanded caste coalition, with Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM broadening the NDA’s social spread. Chirag’s performance, after his aggressive seat-share push, is being closely watched.

With multiple tight contests, the NDA believes these converging advantages are shaping a comfortable edge.

Mahagathbandhan’s broad coalition fails to convert on ground

The Opposition’s strategy hinged on expanding beyond its Muslim–Yadav base, leaning on allies like VIP and IIP to draw in EBCs and riverine communities. Tejashwi Yadav’s youth-centric pitch and Congress’s hopes of staying electorally relevant after Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra formed the alliance’s narrative.

But early trends suggest the coalition’s broader social outreach has not translated into gains — with only the vote share of smaller players like Jan Suraaj hinting at future shifts in caste alignments.

NDA sweeps SC-reserved seats; LJP(RV) emerges as star performer

The NDA is leading in 35 of Bihar’s 38 SC-reserved seats, a sweeping reversal of the Mahagathbandhan’s strong 2020 showing.

SC seat leads:

• JD(U): 14 (up from 8 in 2020)
• BJP: 11 (up from 9)
• LJP(RV): 6 (a dramatic rise from 0)
• HAM(S): 4
• RJD: 2 (down from 9)
• Congress: 1 (down from 4)

Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), leading in 6 of the 8 SC seats it contested, signals a sharp consolidation of the Paswan Dalit vote.

In ST seats, Congress is leading in Manihari and RJD in Katoria — mirroring their 2020 positions.

Rare shift: 4 NDA Muslim candidates lead after a term with none

For the first time since the last Assembly’s zero representation, the NDA has four Muslim candidates leading:

• JD(U) — Shagufta Azim (Araria), Manzar Alam (Jokihat), Mohd Zama Khan (Chainpur).
• LJP (RV) — Mohd Kalimuddin (Bahadurganj).
The BJP maintained its decision to field no Muslim candidates.

On the Opposition side, RJD leads with three Muslim candidates in Sursand, Raghunathpur and Rafiganj. Congress’s Washi Ahmed (Bettiah), CPI(ML)-L’s Quyamuddin Ansari (Arrah) and three AIMIM candidates — in Kochadhaman, Amour and Baisi — are also ahead.

Muslims constitute 17.7% of the state’s population, making these trends a notable corrective to the outgoing Assembly’s absence of Muslim representation.