BJP tightens grip on Nagrota as NC slips to a distant third

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on November 14 registered a commanding victory in the Nagrota Assembly bypoll, but the real political shockwave was felt elsewhere — in the ruling National Conference (NC), which slid to a distant third, deepening concerns about its shrinking footprint in the Jammu region.

Devyani Rana, daughter of late BJP leader Devender Rana, clinched the seat with 42,143 votes, defeating her nearest rival Harsh Dev Singh — former minister and president of the J&K National Panthers Party (India) — by 24,522 votes.

While the BJP’s margin dipped slightly compared to 2024, analysts say the sharper decline belongs unmistakably to the NC.

According to the Election Commission’s final tally, NC candidate Shamim Begum secured just 10,834 votes, signalling a steep fall for a party that only a year ago formed the government in Jammu and Kashmir.

The bypoll, widely viewed as a barometer of public sentiment for both the BJP and the NC, has instead exposed deep fissures within the ruling alliance.

Devyani, an Economics graduate from the University of California, inherits a constituency her father won decisively in 2024 by more than 30,000 votes. His death last October necessitated the bypoll, turning it into a prestige contest between the BJP and a visibly rattled NC.

Political observers point out that while Congress chose not to field a candidate this time — a strategic move meant to consolidate anti-BJP votes — the NC’s decision to field its own candidate has been read as a breach of coalition understanding.

The NC’s insistence on contesting Nagrota, despite Congress stepping aside, has added fuel to accusations that the party has been soft on the BJP in recent months.

The tensions go back to last month’s Rajya Sabha elections, where the BJP surprised many by winning one of four seats after securing 32 votes — four more than its strength of 28 MLAs. The outcome revived allegations that the NC was covertly facilitating the BJP, a charge the party denies but has struggled to shake off.

The Nagrota result has now sharpened those voices. According to senior Congress leaders, the NC’s refusal to back Harsh Dev Singh — a three-time MLA with longstanding grassroots presence in Nagrota — effectively split anti-BJP support, easing the BJP’s path to victory.

With the NC now finishing third, pressure from within the alliance is expected to escalate. Congress leaders privately argue that their six MLAs are the “stabilising force” keeping the Omar Abdullah-led government afloat. The NC, which holds 41 seats in the 88-member Assembly, also relies on five independents and one CPM legislator — but Congress leaders warn that independents’ loyalties cannot be taken for granted.

For the NC, the bypoll outcome is more than just a regional setback. It amplifies doubts about the party’s political strategy, strains its alliance with Congress, and signals an unsettling shift in Jammu’s electoral landscape — one in which the BJP appears firmly in command, and the NC increasingly on the defensive.