Trump’s war for peace may miss Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 but his eyes are already on 2026

As the Norwegian Nobel Committee prepares to unveil the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize at 11 a.m. (2:30 p.m. IST) in Oslo, few announcements have drawn such feverish anticipation. The reason: Donald Trump — never one to shy away from spectacle — has spent months publicly campaigning for the honor, touting himself as the world’s great peacemaker.

In speeches, interviews, and even from the United Nations podium, Trump has taken credit for ending between “six to seven conflicts” — from India-Pakistan to Israel-Iran — often describing them as “unendable wars” raging for “thousands of years.”

According to him, his personal diplomacy, tariff threats, and military posturing have restored peace where none seemed possible.

But even Trump’s loudest self-promotion may not change one simple fact: he’s ineligible for this year’s prize.

A technicality Trump can’t talk his way out of

The biggest obstacle between Trump and the 2025 Nobel isn’t politics — it’s paperwork. Nominations for this year closed on January 31, barely a week after he re-entered the White House. That alone rules him out of contention, no matter how many leaders endorse him.

In June, Pakistan nominated Trump for his “efforts toward regional stability,” while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed up with his own nomination letter in July. Still, the Nobel Committee’s process — steeped in Scandinavian secrecy — allows no late entries, and the names of nominees will remain sealed for fifty years.

The myth and math of Trump’s peacemaking

Reality paints a less flattering picture of Trump’s “seven settled wars.” Analysts point out that only three or four of those conflicts — including India-Pakistan, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and Rwanda-Congo — involved actual fighting. The rest, such as the Egypt-Ethiopia dam dispute and Serbia-Kosovo tensions, were political standoffs rather than shooting wars.

Still, Trump’s claim does rest on one indisputable fact: he is the only US President in this century not to start a new war. While his first term saw drone strikes surge and high-profile assassinations — notably that of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 — Trump’s aversion to launching new conflicts remains a key talking point.

The second act: Peacemaker Trump 2.0

Now in his second term, Trump is trying to burnish that image further. His administration has floated ceasefire deals for Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas, though neither has stuck. A much-hyped peace summit in Alaska with Vladimir Putin in August ended without progress, and both wars grind on.

On October 9 — just a day before the Nobel announcement — Trump claimed a breakthrough on Truth Social, declaring that both Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a peace deal. “Blessed are the peacemakers!” he wrote in all caps, accompanied by a photo of Secretary of State Marco Rubio slipping him a handwritten note reminding him to “announce the deal first.”

It was vintage Trump: timing, optics, and self-promotion rolled into one.

The Nobel he can’t have — yet

When asked if he expected to win, Trump replied: “I have no idea… maybe they’ll find a reason not to give it to me.” That reason, it turns out, is purely procedural — but politically, it’s a blessing in disguise.

By claiming disinterest now, Trump can spin any outcome to his advantage. If he wins next year, he’ll frame it as overdue recognition. If not, he’ll argue the committee was biased. Either way, the narrative stays his.

As one diplomat in Oslo put it: “Trump doesn’t just want peace. He wants the peace prize to prove he made it.”

For now, the world will watch the Nobel stage without him. But Trump’s campaign for the world’s most coveted medal of virtue isn’t over — it’s only paused until 2026.