Congress likely to settle for 58-60 seats in Bihar alliance as RJD pushes to retain dominance

The Congress is likely to contest fewer seats than it did in 2020 as seat-sharing talks within Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan inch toward a conclusion. According to top alliance sources, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is close to finalizing a formula that would allocate 58 to 60 seats to the Congress — down from the 70 it fought in the previous Assembly elections.

While the Congress has insisted on maintaining its earlier tally, the RJD — the alliance's largest and most dominant player — has been reluctant to concede more than 55 seats. “The Congress has been made to understand that with new partners in the fold, it has to share the burden,” a senior RJD leader said.

The alliance, which includes the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI, CPI(M), and now the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Pashupati Kumar Paras’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), is recalibrating seat distribution to accommodate growing ambitions within its ranks.

RJD stakes its claim

The RJD, which had emerged as the single largest party in 2020 by winning 75 of the 144 seats it contested, wants to retain most of its turf and is aiming to field candidates in 135-140 constituencies. Party leaders cite its increased vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as evidence of strengthened support.

Rejecting the notion that too many seats were handed to Congress last time, RJD insiders argue that the 70 constituencies given to the party were mostly weak ones. Congress won just 19 of them in 2020. “These weren’t winnable RJD strongholds. That perception of over-allocation is misplaced,” said a senior functionary.

Bihar is expected to head to the Assembly polls in October or November.

Smaller allies seek bigger bite

Mukesh Sahni’s VIP, which had contested 11 seats and won four as part of the NDA in 2020, is now pushing for 60 seats — a demand RJD leaders call unrealistic. Sources say the alliance may offer VIP no more than 12 seats, focused on its base in the Mallah community.

Meanwhile, the CPI(ML), which had the highest strike rate in 2020 (winning 12 of 19), and also secured two Lok Sabha seats in 2024, is pushing for an increased share. Paras’s LJP, a new entrant, is expected to get just 2-3 seats.

RJD rules out AIMIM alliance

Despite overtures from the AIMIM, the RJD has ruled out any alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, citing its "communal image" and the potential backlash across Bihar. While the AIMIM won five seats in 2020 — mostly in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region — four of its MLAs later defected to the RJD.

“A tactical gain in a few seats could mean strategic loss across the state,” said a senior RJD leader, reaffirming that the party’s stance against “polarizing” forces remains unchanged. The RJD had also previously rejected the SDPI, the political wing of the now-banned Popular Front of India (PFI), during the 2020 elections.

Final word awaited

Though negotiations are being described as “cordial,” leaders admit the balancing act is growing more complex with each election cycle. The Congress, while still the second-largest partner, appears to be conceding ground to maintain unity — and relevance — in an increasingly crowded alliance.

A formal seat-sharing announcement is expected soon, once final adjustments are made for all partners.