India's population story is changing as fertility falls below replacement level

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, marking a significant demographic milestone for the world's most populous country.

According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024 released by the Registrar General of India, the country's TFR stood at 1.9 births per woman in 2024, down from 2.1 and below the level required to maintain a stable population over the long term.

The replacement level is generally estimated at 2.1 children per woman. A fertility rate below this threshold means that, in the absence of migration, each generation will eventually be smaller than the one before it.

However, experts note that India's population is not expected to decline immediately because of "population momentum" created by its large young population.

The decline in fertility has been gradual but persistent. Government data shows that India's TFR has fallen from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024, reflecting long-term changes in education, urbanisation, healthcare access and family planning. Rural areas recorded a TFR of 2.1, while urban areas stood significantly lower at 1.5.

The trend is not uniform across the country. Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate among major states at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6. In contrast, Delhi reported the lowest TFR at 1.2, while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal were among the states with fertility rates well below replacement level.

The development has sparked debate among economists and demographers about what the shift means for India's future. Some view it as evidence of social progress, pointing to improvements in female education, healthcare access and declining infant mortality.

Others warn that sustained low fertility could eventually lead to an ageing population, a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on social welfare systems, challenges already confronting several East Asian and European countries.

Recent discussions on the issue have highlighted changing family preferences, rising living costs, delayed marriages, greater workforce participation among women and increasing investment in education as factors contributing to smaller family sizes. Urbanisation has also played a major role, with fertility rates falling much faster in cities than in rural areas.

Despite the decline, experts caution against alarmist interpretations. India's population is expected to continue growing for some time because a large proportion of its population remains in the childbearing age group.

The country's demographic dividend, characterised by a relatively young workforce, is therefore unlikely to disappear immediately.

The challenge for policymakers, analysts say, is to ensure that the current demographic advantage is translated into economic gains through investments in education, skills development and employment generation.

As fertility rates continue to fall, productivity and workforce participation could become increasingly important drivers of growth.

India's fertility transition mirrors a broader global trend. Many countries have seen birth rates decline as incomes rise, education expands and women gain greater access to employment opportunities.

The latest figures suggest India has now firmly entered that phase of demographic transition, bringing both opportunities and long-term policy challenges.