Strategic Pivot in Naval Procurement

India is reportedly set to cancel a ₹36,000 crore follow-on order with France for three additional Scorpene-class submarines, signaling a significant shift in its naval procurement strategy. Instead, the Indian Navy is considering a partnership with Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) to acquire next-generation submarine capabilities. This move forms part of India’s broader effort to modernize its underwater warfare assets while diversifying defense procurement sources and strengthening domestic shipbuilding capacity.

Currently, India operates six Scorpene-class submarines, which were inducted as part of Project 75, with technology transfer and partial local production at Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) in Mumbai. The cancelled order would have expanded the fleet and enhanced India’s conventional submarine capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). However, with evolving maritime threats and a need for advanced stealth, endurance, and sensor capabilities, the Navy appears to be recalibrating its procurement priorities.

Under the new plan, Project 75I (India) is expected to involve co-production with MDL, combining German technological expertise with Indian industrial capability. The investment for this next-generation initiative is estimated at ₹70,000 crore, reflecting both the scale of modernization and the strategic intent to indigenize advanced submarine construction. This partnership is likely to provide India with superior propulsion systems, air-independent propulsion (AIP) technology, and advanced weapon systems, while also enhancing domestic defense manufacturing competence.

The shift from France to Germany also reflects geopolitical and strategic considerations. India has increasingly sought to diversify defense procurement away from a single source to mitigate supply chain risks and reduce dependency on any single foreign partner. Germany’s reputation for cutting-edge submarine technology, coupled with a willingness to transfer advanced systems under joint production arrangements, makes it a favorable alternative. Moreover, this transition aligns with India’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, strengthening its underwater deterrence capabilities in a region marked by heightened naval competition.

Despite its promise, the transition presents multiple challenges. Ensuring smooth technology transfer, maintaining project timelines, and minimizing operational gaps during the transition are critical. Additionally, compatibility with existing fleet platforms, crew training, and integration of new weapon systems will require meticulous planning and coordination. Risk mitigation strategies, including phased commissioning and rigorous testing, will be essential to prevent capability gaps during the switch from French to German systems.

In conclusion, the proposed cancellation of the Scorpene follow-on order and consideration of German alternatives marks a strategic pivot in India’s naval modernization trajectory. By leveraging advanced technology, fostering domestic industrial participation, and diversifying procurement partners, India aims to strengthen its submarine fleet’s operational readiness and bolster its deterrence posture in the Indian Ocean and beyond. This move underscores India’s commitment to long-term naval modernization while balancing strategic, industrial, and geopolitical objectives.