Brent Crude Above $100 as US-Iran Conflict Threatens Global Oil Supply

Global crude oil prices surged up to nearly 2 per cent on Thursday with Brent crude breaching the $100-a-barrel mark following escalating attacks by Iran and the United States on shipping routes. The international oil benchmark -- Brent crude -- rose 0.68 per cent to $101.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.81 per cent to $97.79 a barrel. Iran has said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps also said it would escalate its response to any further attacks.

The developments have heightened concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz which is a key global energy transit route. In addition, oil flows through the strait have reportedly fallen to roughly a quarter of pre-war levels following tanker strikes this week. On the domestic market, crude oil opened with a mild gap-up and was trading around Rs 9,140, up 0.45 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), while testing the Rs 9,150-9,200 resistance zone after an extended rally, according to the experts.

A sustained break above Rs 9,200 could take MCX crude towards the next resistance at Rs 9,350-9,400, analysts said and added that immediate support is seen at Rs 9,000-8,950, followed by Rs 8,800-8,750. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 71 indicates strong momentum, although the elevated reading also raises the possibility of a near-term pullback or consolidation.

“Crude remains supported by the Strait of Hormuz disruption,” the experts said, adding that the bias remains strongly constructive as long as MCX crude holds above Rs 9,000. In the international market, WTI crude was trading above $96 after retreating from levels close to $98. A sustained break above $98 could open the way towards $100, while support is seen at $95-$94 and then $92-$91. WTI's RSI at 69 indicates that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the pullback. Analysts said a move above $98 would strengthen the bullish momentum, while a break below $95 could signal a deeper near-term correction.

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