Trump's White House return shakes up global alliances: Who wins and who loses

Donald Trump’s surprise return to the United States presidency after a four-year absence is set to change the geopolitical landscape, reshaping US alliances and resetting global expectations.

His "America First" approach, which prioritizes US interests and evaluates partnerships based on their immediate benefit to American policy goals, suggests that many existing international relationships could face significant recalibration.

With his distinct style of foreign policy — often favoring personal rapport and transactional diplomacy — several world leaders are likely to welcome Trump’s return, seeing it as an opportunity for closer ties and less scrutiny on internal matters.

Meanwhile, other leaders, particularly those who may face reduced support for their agendas, are preparing for potential headwinds.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are among the leaders expected to benefit from a Trump-led administration.

These leaders have previously enjoyed Trump’s supportive approach, fostering close personal connections with the former president and anticipating that his policies will align well with their national interests.

For Modi, Trump’s policies could enhance US-India relations with less pressure over India’s ties to Russia, while Mohammed bin Salman hopes to see renewed energy for a US-Saudi security pact.

However, leaders such as Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and China’s Xi Jinping may find the new administration’s stance challenging.

Trump’s skepticism towards continued military aid to Ukraine could strain Kyiv’s defenses against Russian advances, while Xi faces the prospect of elevated trade tariffs that could hinder China’s economic recovery.

As Trump’s policies unfold, global leaders reassess their strategies, anticipating new opportunities and challenges in the evolving landscape.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi:

Trump’s presidency brings a positive outlook for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who shares a strong rapport with him. Their friendship and aligned priorities on strategic partnerships make India a probable beneficiary of Trump’s return. Modi may find more leeway in balancing U.S. and Russian relationships, as Trump’s stance could reduce friction over India’s ties with Moscow. Trump's administration may also distance itself from Canada’s calls to hold India accountable in sensitive diplomatic issues, according to Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman:

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is likely to seize this opportunity to advance a long-sought security pact with the U.S. Trump, who facilitated the Abraham Accords, is expected to focus on expanding this framework, potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Israel. Success here could lead the U.S. to back Saudi security initiatives, allowing the kingdom to prioritize economic reform and counter Iranian influence.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

For Netanyahu, Trump’s return is a welcome change. Unlike Biden, who had limited military aid due to humanitarian concerns, Trump is likely to adopt a more supportive stance. This could see the U.S. ramping up its backing of Israel in regional conflicts, particularly against Iranian-supported forces, as Trump aligns with Netanyahu on a firm anti-Iran approach.

Russian President Vladimir Putin:

Putin may view Trump’s presidency as an opportunity to exploit divisions in the West and pressure Ukraine. Trump’s "America First" stance could lead to reduced support for Ukraine, although the Kremlin remains cautious about Trump’s unpredictability. A forced peace settlement might be on the horizon, though concerns linger that Trump’s approach could backfire, even risking nuclear tension.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni:

Meloni, a right-wing leader with strong Atlantic ties, hopes Trump’s presidency will strengthen her role as a bridge between Europe and the U.S. Although firmly aligned with NATO, she acknowledges Europe’s need for unity with America. Former Italian diplomat Francesco Talò noted that, while NATO won’t fracture under Trump, the alliance will face challenging dynamics on issues like China.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

Turkey’s Erdogan, who enjoys a friendly relationship with Trump, may look forward to warmer relations and increased communication. Trump’s focus on trade and distaste for prolonged conflicts could benefit Turkey’s interests, though recent ties with China could present some complications.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un:

Kim Jong Un may hope to capitalize on Trump’s return, banking on his past willingness to negotiate and scale back joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. Although previous talks with Trump yielded no formal agreement, Kim may anticipate a renewed diplomatic opening to reduce the American military footprint in the region.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban:

One of Trump’s closest allies in Europe, Orban hopes Trump’s presidency will bolster Hungary’s standing within the EU. With a pro-Russian outlook and a history of autocratic measures, Orban sees Trump as a supportive figure who could ease Western scrutiny over Hungary’s political path and possibly help end the Ukraine conflict quickly.

Argentine President Javier Milei:

Javier Milei, a vocal supporter of Trump, now looks to benefit from Trump’s stance on renegotiating financial deals. Argentina is expected to push for better IMF terms and explore investment opportunities with U.S. businesses, as Milei continues strengthening relations with figures like Elon Musk.

Challenges Ahead for Some Leaders

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky:

Ukraine could face difficulties with Trump in power. Trump’s non-interventionist leanings and intent to prioritize swift negotiations may prompt pressure on Ukraine to make concessions to Russia, sparking concern over the continuation of U.S. aid.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian:

For Iran, Trump’s return dampens hopes for nuclear diplomacy, as he has previously taken a hardline approach against Tehran. Trump’s support for Israel and “maximum pressure” sanctions may further isolate Iran, although it has recently mended ties with Gulf nations.

Chinese President Xi Jinping:

China’s leader may face economic challenges, as Trump’s proposed tariffs and stance on U.S.-China trade could disrupt Chinese markets. Trump’s skepticism of U.S. military commitments in Asia, however, could play to China’s favor, especially with regard to Taiwan.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba:

Japan may come under new pressure to support U.S. military presence and trade demands. Trump’s insistence on reducing trade imbalances and potential limits on exports to China could complicate relations as Japan reassesses its strategic policies in the Pacific.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum:

Trump’s border policies could place added pressure on Mexico. The administration’s tariff plans and expected scrutiny of the free-trade agreement could hinder Mexico’s growth, particularly as it aims to increase exports through nearshoring initiatives.

British Leaders Await U.S. Relations Reset

U.K. leaders remain cautious as they anticipate Trump’s approach to the “special relationship,” with potential implications for trade and defense cooperation under his new term.

With Trump back in the White House, the global landscape is primed for substantial diplomatic and economic shifts as world leaders evaluate their approach to a new era of U.S. foreign policy.