As Shehbaz Sharif assumes PM office, Pak experts say no improvement in Indo-Pak relations in near future

Islamabad (PTI): As Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif assumed office for a second time, experts here do not see an immediate improvement in ties between Pakistan and India due to their major differences over the vexed Kashmir issue.

The two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours have been locked in a love-hate relationship since independence from British colonial rule in 1947, having brief periods of engagement amidst conflicts.

They have so far fought at least three major wars, two of them over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, with both claiming it in its entirety.

The ties nosedived in 2019 after India abrogated Article 370 of the Constitution, revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcating the state into two Union Territories.

Pakistan termed the step a violation of the UN Security Council Resolutions and severed all links, including trade, with India.

Rasul Bux Raees, Professor of Political Science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, told PTI that the divergence in the ties has widened since 2019, and it is not easy to judge how the two sides can reverse the tide and embark on a different course that may lead them to reconciliation.

“I don’t see an immediate change in attitudes or any re-engagement, as India is also going for elections and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not like to change its narrative about Pakistan,” he said.

The formation of a new government in Pakistan after the general elections has created hope that Prime Minister Shehbaz may strike a positive chord to end the deadlock and improve the battered ties with India.

Shehbaz after being elected as the leader of the House on Sunday raked up the Kashmir issue in his maiden address but pledged to improve ties with all leading nations, including the country's neighbours.

"Let’s all come together […] and the National Assembly should pass a resolution for the freedom of Kashmiris and Palestinians,” Shehbaz said.

Pakistan has been insisting that the onus of improving the ties was on India and urging it to undo its "unilateral" steps in Kashmir as a sort of pre-condition to start the talks. India has dismissed the suggestion and made it clear to Pakistan that the entire Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh were integral and inalienable parts of the country.

New Delhi has also asserted that the constitutional measures taken by the Indian government to ensure socio-economic development and good governance in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir are matters internal to India.

It has been maintaining that it desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan while insisting that the onus is on Islamabad to create an environment that is free of terror and hostility for such an engagement.

Professor Raees said it was easier for the government to say something than do it about India and the new government would not take any quick initiative as after internal strife spanning over the years, Pakistan has become weaker and hence not in a position to force conditions on India.

“Pakistan is not in a position to put conditions before the start of a dialogue, as India has become stronger with the passage of time and Pakistan weaker,” he said.

Dr Ashfaq Ahmed, Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Sargodha, said that initially the Pakistan prime minister would be fully focused on stabilising the coalition government, and it may not be possible for him to concentrate on external relations, especially ties with India.

“But later on, maybe after six months, the government will have to make a move on relations with India if it wants to address some major issues like trade and water scarcity in the country,” he said, adding that water is becoming a big issue for Pakistan.

He also said that it would be interesting to note the reaction by India once the Pakistani government sent any signal that it was ready to engage in the resumption of talks.

Raees also said engagements may begin with talks on trade and other related issues, and with the building of confidence, the two sides can talk on the Kashmir issue. “But it is important to understand that Pakistan will only talk with India if it feels that it is in its favour and it will get some benefit; otherwise, it will not be inclined to hold talks,” he said.

Ahmed said that the Kashmir issue could become more difficult to handle as India was modernising its weapon systems at a fast pace, and by 2030, it would be in a position to claim superiority over Pakistan because by that time its S-400 system, backed by Rafale fighter jets and the latest drones it was acquiring from the US would be fully deployed and operational.

It will be quite a task for Pakistan to convince India to hold talks on determining the status of Kashmir, he said, adding that it would be interesting to see if the two countries still agree to open a channel of communication.

Raees said an important development for Pakistan will be if India becomes ready to accommodate its concerns about Kashmir in the context of post-370 arrangements.

However, he hit the nail on the head when he said that without any major shift in the reading of the situation by the Pakistani military establishment, the new government of Shehbaz Sharif may not be able to do anything related to ties with India.

“From the perspective of Pakistan, a change towards India will come if there is a change in the thinking of the General Headquarters (Pakistan Army), which has a lot of influence over the foreign and defence policies of the country,” Raees added.