BJP-led NDA set to win comfortable majority, show exit polls

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely return for a third term in office, per exit polls which have predicted a thumping win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Based on a composite of seven exit polls after the final phase of voting on June 1, it is predicted that the NDA will secure 361 seats, while the INDIA bloc will win 145. 

The BJP is projected to win 311 seats, and the Congress 63 seats, an increase from the 52 seats it won in the last general election in 2019.

The highest number of seats projected for the NDA is 371-401 in the India TV-CNX exit poll. This poll forecast that the opposition bloc will secure 109-139 seats. 

But these are mere exit polls, which are nothing more than political weather forecasts—they gauge the mood of voters as they exit polling stations. And exit polls have known to be inaccurate. The main reason for the inaccuracy is the sheer amount of resources these surveys demand. Also, the agencies have a very short timeline for collecting data.

The actual election results will be announced on June 4.

Meanwhile, here are six times when exit polls got it completely wrong:

2004 Lok Sabha:

Exit polls confidently predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s BJP government. Numbers floated around 240 to 275 seats. But Congress and its allies formed the government with 216 seats, leaving the NDA behind.

2014 Lok Sabha:

Exit polls heralded a shift in power, but they underestimated the magnitude. The NDA was projected to win 283 seats. The actual outcome? A whopping 336 seats for the NDA, with BJP alone securing 282. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) managed a mere 60.

2015 Bihar Assembly:

Exit polls painted a picture of a tight contest with no clear majority, but actual results showed a desicive victory for the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance.

2015 Delhi Assembly:

Although all exit polls predicted a majority for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), none of them were able to capture the landslide victory. Pollsters had predicted no more than 50 seats for the party, which actually won 67 of the 70 seats. 

2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly:

Following demonetization, exit polls predicted a hung assembly with BJP as the largest party. The actual result? BJP won by an overwhelming majority, with 325 seats – way higher than what exit polls had suggested.

2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly: 

Exit polls had predicted an easy win for the Congress. But the BJP won decisively, bagging 50 seats.