India-Pakistan Ceasefire: What will happen now? Explained

India Pakistan Ceasefire: India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire, halting all military engagements across land, air, and sea. The announcement was made on May 10, 2025, following a high-level military conversation between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two nations. The call, which was initiated by Pakistan's DGMO at 3:35 PM IST, resulted in an agreement that the ceasefire would commence at 5:00 PM IST the same day.

This move comes in the wake of rapidly escalating tensions following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 Indian tourists in Jammu and Kashmir. In response, both nations engaged in a series of retaliatory military actions, including airstrikes, drone attacks, and missile launches, sparking fears of a potential full-scale conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

The ceasefire, though not a formal peace treaty, is a crucial step toward de-escalation. Both militaries have pledged to honor the agreement and engage in further dialogue, with the next round of talks scheduled for May 12. The United States played a mediatory role, with President Donald Trump publicly acknowledging and supporting the peace initiative, calling it a “full and immediate ceasefire.”

Although the ceasefire declaration marks a moment of diplomatic triumph, early signs of fragility emerged within hours, with reports of continued cross-border shelling in Kashmir. Both countries have since traded accusations of ceasefire violations, revealing the precariousness of the agreement.

Still, this development offers a window of opportunity—a brief but critical pause that could help prevent further loss of life, offer space for strategic reassessment, and perhaps pave the way for a more sustained peace dialogue between two of South Asia’s most prominent powers.

What is Ceasefire?

A ceasefire is a temporary suspension of active hostilities, often agreed upon by conflicting parties either unilaterally or bilaterally, and typically serves as a precursor to peace negotiations. Unlike a peace treaty, which is a formal and binding agreement to end conflict, a ceasefire is often informal or preliminary in nature. It is designed to stop violence immediately, allowing space for political and diplomatic engagement.

In the case of India and Pakistan, ceasefires have a long and complex history, dating back to their first war over Kashmir in 1947–48. The most notable of these agreements is the 2003 ceasefire agreement, which, though often violated, provided a general framework for limiting cross-border violence. The current ceasefire agreement announced in May 2025 echoes many of the commitments of the 2003 understanding but is happening under significantly more intense conditions, with the threat of modern warfare looming large.

The recent ceasefire did not occur in isolation. It was triggered by a series of violent incidents that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of open war once again.

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of 26 Indian tourists and injured dozens more.

India swiftly blamed Pakistani-backed terror outfits for the attack, prompting a sharp escalation.

Over the following days, India launched a series of retaliatory airstrikes and drone operations, targeting what it described as “terror infrastructure” in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and near major Pakistani military bases.

Pakistan responded with its own missile launches and aerial combat missions, targeting Indian military installations near the Line of Control (LoC) and beyond.

Casualties were reported on both sides, with both nations claiming successful intercepts and defenses while denying damage inflicted by the other.

The escalation reached a point where global actors, including the United States, China, and the United Nations, called for immediate restraint. The US administration, under President Donald Trump, took the lead in brokering a backchannel agreement, urging both countries to return to dialogue and de-escalation.

Ceasefire Terms and Details

The May 10, 2025 ceasefire agreement outlines the following commitments:

Complete halt of all military operations across:

Land: No artillery fire, troop movements, or infiltration attempts across the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border.

Air: No aerial reconnaissance or combat sorties near or across the border.

Sea: No naval deployments or exercises that could provoke military response.

Next Round of DGMO Talks scheduled for May 12, 2025, aimed at formulating protocols for border management and crisis response.

Reactivation of military hotlines and communication channels to ensure miscommunication does not lead to unintended escalation.

Commitment to prevent terrorism: Though not detailed publicly, both sides are expected to address cross-border infiltration and terror financing—issues that have historically triggered breakdowns in such agreements.

Early Challenges and Allegations of Violation

Barely hours after the agreement took effect, news emerged of renewed cross-border firing in the disputed Kashmir region. Both India and Pakistan blamed each other for violating the ceasefire, demonstrating the fragility of the truce.

Pakistan alleged that Indian forces targeted a civilian area near Kotli, resulting in injuries.

India responded by accusing Pakistan of providing cover fire for terrorist infiltrators, prompting a defensive response.

These incidents underscore a recurring pattern in Indo-Pak ceasefires, where the lack of third-party monitoring, coupled with deep-rooted mistrust, often leads to quick erosion of agreed terms.

Ceasefire Violations: What Happens Next?

When a ceasefire is violated, the immediate response is typically diplomatic engagement through military channels. This is why DGMO-level talks and hotline communication are so crucial. Both militaries are expected to:

Exchange reports and conduct joint verifications (if agreed upon) to identify sources of firing.

Issue warnings or formal protests through diplomatic missions.

Avoid retaliation unless necessary, in order to prevent escalation.

However, if violations continue or escalate, the ceasefire can be considered null, returning both sides to active hostilities. This has happened several times in the past, particularly after major terror incidents or political crises.

International Mediation and Response

President Donald Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire indicates US involvement in facilitating the talks, possibly through intelligence sharing and diplomatic pressure. The US has a strategic interest in maintaining peace in South Asia, particularly with its ongoing focus on counterterrorism and maintaining influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Other international responses included:

The United Nations welcomed the ceasefire and called for broader dialogue on Kashmir.

China, a key regional player and ally of Pakistan, urged restraint and praised the effort but warned against “external interference.”

Russia called the ceasefire a "welcome de-escalation" and offered to mediate further talks if needed.

The India-Pakistan ceasefire of May 2025 stands as both a testament to the power of diplomacy and a reminder of the fragility of peace in South Asia. While it brings a temporary halt to active conflict, underlying tensions—territorial disputes, terrorism, and political mistrust—remain deeply unresolved.

For this ceasefire to evolve into a sustainable peace process, both nations must:

Address root causes of conflict, particularly in Kashmir.

Maintain transparency and open communication through regular military and diplomatic engagement.

Engage civil society and international partners in peace-building measures.

The world watches closely, hopeful yet cautious. As history shows, peace between India and Pakistan is not just a matter of signed agreements—it requires sustained political will, public support, and a commitment to a shared vision of regional stability.