Bay of Bengal Low-Pressure Area May Intensify Into Cyclonic Storm by November 16: IMD

A low-pressure area has formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that it could intensify into a cyclonic storm by the evening of November 16. The developing system is expected to bring strong winds and rainfall over parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

According to IMD's bulletin issued on November 13, the low-pressure area formed at 5:30 am under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the central Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It was still present over the same region at 8:30 am.

Cyclone Formation: IMD's Forecast for November 15 and 16

The weather department expects the system to move northwestwards and become a well-marked low-pressure area by November 14. It may then strengthen into a depression over the same region around the morning of November 15.

After that, the system is likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal by the evening of November 16. If it reaches cyclonic-storm intensity, the system will be named Akvan, a name contributed by Iran under the regional cyclone-naming arrangement. However, the system has not yet reached cyclone intensity. Its development will depend on weather conditions over the Bay of Bengal.

IMD has forecast squally weather and stronger winds over several parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea as the system develops. Wind speeds could reach 40–50 kmph, with gusts up to 60 kmph over the Andaman Sea. Over the southwest and central Bay of Bengal, winds may reach 45–55 kmph, with gusts up to 65 kmph during November 15–17. The department has also forecast rain and thundershowers over parts of the Bay of Bengal, with isolated heavy rainfall in some areas.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are among the regions expected to experience significant rainfall activity. IMD's extended-range forecast indicates fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the islands between November 12 and 18.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely during November 12–16. Residents and people involved in maritime activities have been advised to follow the latest weather updates.

Will the Cyclone Hit Odisha or Andhra Pradesh?

IMD has not confirmed the system's landfall location or its eventual path towards the Indian coastline. Although the system is expected to strengthen over the Bay of Bengal, its movement after intensification remains uncertain.

In its extended-range forecast issued on November 12, IMD noted that different weather models broadly indicated the possibility of a cyclonic storm developing over the central South Bay of Bengal. However, the models differed over its likely track and landfall location during November 19–25. The department's subsequent bulletins will provide greater clarity as the system develops.