WMO warns of likely El Niño return, urges governments to prepare for extreme weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and urged governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors to prepare for an increased risk of extreme weather in the coming months.

According to the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update released on June 2, there is an 80% probability of an El Niño event emerging during the June-August period and a more than 90% chance that it will continue until at least November. Most forecast models indicate that the event is likely to be moderate and could potentially become strong.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It typically occurs every two to seven years and can significantly alter global weather patterns, affecting rainfall, temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events.

The WMO said unusually warm ocean waters beneath the Pacific surface are driving the current development. According to the agency, subsurface temperatures have exceeded normal levels by more than 6 degrees Celsius in some areas, providing a large reservoir of heat that is contributing to surface warming.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing conditions as an "urgent climate warning" and said El Niño would add to the effects of global warming.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world must prepare for a potentially strong event that could increase the risk of drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves on land and in the oceans.

The agency noted that the most recent El Niño event in 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024.

Scientists warn that while climate change does not necessarily increase the frequency of El Niño events, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify their impacts.

WMO forecasts indicate above-average temperatures across nearly all regions of the world during the June-August period. The agency also warned that El Niño could increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall and flooding in some regions while causing drought conditions in others.

Historically, El Niño is associated with wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. At the same time, it often brings drier conditions to Central America, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.

For South Asia, regional climate outlook forums cited by WMO have projected below-average monsoon rainfall, raising concerns about potential impacts on agriculture and water resources.

The WMO said seasonal forecasts and early warning systems will be critical in helping governments and communities prepare for possible disruptions. The agency added that it will continue monitoring conditions closely and provide regular updates as the climate pattern evolves.