Arctic Demersal Fish face potential local extinction by 2100 due to climate change: Study

Climate change poses a significant threat to key fish populations in the Arctic, especially the Arctic Demersal fish which could potentially witness local extinction by 2100 if no climate mitigation measures are taken, a new study has revealed.

The study conducted by an international team of researchers, led by Nord University, including experts from Newcastle University, analyzed data from 16,345 fishery-independent trawls between 2004 and 2022.

It focused on 107 marine fish species in the northeast Atlantic and the Barents Sea, employing advanced modeling to forecast changes in distribution and biomass under three future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100.

Published in the journal Nature Communications, the study indicates that while warmer-water fish are migrating into the Arctic, they will not fully compensate for the loss of traditional Arctic species.

This shift could reduce overall fish populations, particularly the most abundant species, despite an increase in species diversity.

“Given the large changes we predict under future climactic conditions, it’s really important that future fishery management strategies and marine protected area planning consider shifts in species biomass dynamics and distributions. The research team is currently exploring these important considerations as part of ongoing projects," said Dr. Fabrice Stephenson of Newcastle University’s School of Natural and Environmental Sciences.

The research forecasts a rise in species diversity but a decline in the dominance of current species within the ecosystem. Warmer-water species are expected to extend northward, while colder-water species may retreat.

The international collaboration included experts from Nord University in Bodø, Norway; the Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC) in Barcelona, Spain; the Ecopath International Initiative (EII) in Barcelona, Spain; and Newcastle University in the United Kingdom.

“Climate Warming is happening in the Arctic Barents Sea faster than anywhere else, and our study suggests structural changes in the fish community as a result. More observations on these changes in the years to come will help fisheries adapt to the effect of climate warming on biodiversity," said Dr. Cesc Gordó Vilaseca, of Nord University’s Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture.

The international collaboration included experts from Nord University in Bodø, Norway; the Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC) in Barcelona, Spain; the Ecopath International Initiative (EII) in Barcelona, Spain; and Newcastle University in the United Kingdom.

As the Arctic continues to warm at an unprecedented rate, this study underscores the urgent need for adaptive fishery management strategies to address the shifting dynamics of marine ecosystems in the region.