Indian student outflow slows as Canada, US, UK see first simultaneous decline in 5 years

After a decade of explosive growth that saw Indian students surpass their Chinese counterparts across major study destinations, fresh data signals a dramatic reversal.

For the first time in five years, the number of Indian students securing study visas has simultaneously declined in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. According to an analysis by a national daily, 2024 has witnessed a steep decline — at least 25% — in Indian student visa approvals across these three countries.

Canada saw a 32% drop, with study permits falling from 2.78 lakh to 1.89 lakh, based on data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

The US experienced a 34% dip in F1 visas, falling from 1.31 lakh in FY 2023 to 86,110 this year. The UK registered a 26% decrease, with sponsored student visas issued to Indians declining from 1.20 lakh to 88,732, per the UK Home Office.

This downturn follows tightened immigration policies in these nations — especially Canada and the UK — as governments respond to growing domestic pressures on housing, healthcare, and public services. Both countries have introduced stricter visa norms, including caps on student intake and limitations on dependent visas.

In Canada, the government has scrapped the fast-track Student Direct Stream program for Indian students and announced plans to reduce temporary residents to 5% of its total population by 2026. A newly introduced cap on study permits has already led to a 35% year-on-year reduction for 2024, with a further 10% cut expected in 2025.

The impact has been stark: study permits for Indian students in Canada dropped from 2.78 lakh in 2023 to 1.89 lakh in 2024. In contrast, Chinese student numbers in Canada declined by just 3% during the same period — from 58,080 to 56,465.

In the UK, new visa restrictions aimed at limiting dependents have significantly affected Indian student inflow. The Home Office acknowledged these changes have “partly impacted the number of main applicant visas granted.”

The UK had already seen a dip in Indian student visas in 2023 — a 13% fall from 1.38 lakh to 1.19 lakh — followed by another 26% plunge in 2024.

The US, which has traditionally attracted Indian students to its graduate programs, has also recorded a sharp decline, though no new visa restrictions specific to Indian students were announced. Experts point to broader immigration sentiments and post-pandemic policy recalibrations.

Boom to bust: A reversal after a decade of growth

The slump marks a significant turn after years of record-breaking increases. Indian students had been driving international enrollment growth across these countries, often outpacing Chinese students in visa approvals.

Canada, for instance, saw an eightfold rise in Indian study permits — from just 31,920 in 2015 to 2.78 lakh in 2023. The UK recorded a more than tenfold surge, with Indian numbers jumping from 10,418 in 2015 to nearly 1.20 lakh in 2023. In the U.S., Indian F1 visa holders nearly doubled from 74,831 in 2015 to over 1.30 lakh in 2023.

By 2023, Indian students had surpassed Chinese students in all three countries. Even amid this year’s decline, Indian students still outnumber Chinese peers in the U.S. and Canada. In the UK, however, they fell behind again in 2024 after two consecutive years of leading.

Shift in academic choices and enrollment patterns

Enrollment trends also vary significantly by country. In Canada, Indian students predominantly opt for college-level diploma and certificate programs, typically shorter and job-oriented. Among university students, undergraduate permits slightly outpaced postgraduate ones in 2023 — 16,000 versus 15,640.

In contrast, Indian students in the US overwhelmingly pursue graduate studies. According to Open Doors data, while engineering dominated until 2017–18, mathematics and computer science have since taken the lead — attracting 37.5% of Indian students compared to 35.4% for engineering.

The UK mirrors this trend, with postgraduate studies remaining the top choice. Four out of five Indian students in the UK — about 80% — are enrolled in master’s programs. The proportion of undergraduates has steadily shrunk, from nearly 50% in 2014 to just 20% in 2024, per the Higher Education Statistics Agency.

What lies ahead?

While temporary, the decline may signal a broader recalibration in global student mobility. With immigration rules tightening and local backlash against international student surges intensifying, Indian students and their families may increasingly look toward alternative destinations — or reevaluate the ROI of expensive overseas degrees.