Israel-Iran Conflict: What is this issue? Learn more!

Israeli authorities have characterized this operation as a crucial struggle to eradicate Iran’s capacity to present a prolonged danger to Israel.

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, the two nations have been in conflict, but Israel's actions represent a significant escalation of the situation.

Iran's Strategy of Proxy Warfare

Throughout the years, Iran has established a network of armed non-state actors in the region to wield influence and confront Israel without direct involvement.

This includes: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq.

This proxy model has enabled Iran to:

reduce its own risks and expenses;
maintain an appearance of plausible deniability while backing initiatives against Israel;
restrict Israeli military abilities on various fronts.

Strategic Influence of Iran's Proxy Network: By employing this strategy, Iran has succeeded in expanding its reach far beyond its borders, affecting regions as remote as the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, and the northern Arabian Sea.

This form of indirect conflict has allowed Iran to enhance its geopolitical stance without provoking significant retaliation—up to this point.

Israel's Continuous Challenge with Proxies

In spite of numerous military strikes on Iran-supported groups, Israel has not succeeded in entirely eradicating or neutralizing them.

For example, Hamas still functions in Gaza despite heavy Israeli military efforts.

Hezbollah continues to be a danger from Lebanon.

The Houthis have resisted Israeli-backed initiatives despite strikes on facilities such as the Sanaa airport.

Most of these factions, with the exception of Hamas, rely significantly on Iranian assistance, particularly for arms and training.

Change in Israeli Military Approach

Israel seems to have determined that attacking these proxies one by one is insufficient for achieving lasting security.

The novel strategy focuses on the core issue — Iran, which backs and maintains the “Axis of Resistance.”

Consequences of the Iran-Israel Dispute

Intensification of Proxy Wars: Iran’s local proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and PMF — could strike back, creating multiple battle fronts and transforming the war into a broader Middle Eastern clash.

Fragile States Destabilization: Nations such as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen may experience an increase in violence, resulting in domestic political turmoil and humanitarian emergencies.

Maritime Insecurity: Important shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Eastern Mediterranean could encounter dangers, interrupting global commerce and energy distribution.

Oil Price Increase: A direct conflict with Iran — a significant oil producer — poses a threat to global oil shipments, which could lead to a rise in oil prices and inflation around the world.

Derailment of Iran Nuclear Agreement Negotiations: Current attempts to renew the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are expected to fail, extinguishing aspirations for a peaceful nuclear resolution.

Bolstering Iran’s Determination: Attacks by Israel on nuclear sites could prompt Iran to hasten its nuclear arms development citing national security.

Arms Competition in the Area: Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia might seek nuclear capabilities, escalating the regional arms competition.

Adjustment of Regional Alliances: Arab nations concerned about Iranian hostility might enhance collaboration with Israel.

Regional powers such as Turkey might adjust their roles to offset influence, whereas Russia could seek to take advantage of the crisis for strategic benefits.

India's Strategic and Economic Challenges: More than 60% of India's crude oil is imported from the Middle East; any instability may interrupt supplies and increase the current account deficit.

Countless Indian nationals are employed in the Gulf; worsening conditions might necessitate urgent evacuations and heighten remittance threats.

India must manage its relationships with Israel, Iran, and Arab nations, ensuring neutrality while safeguarding its strategic interests.