US 100% Tariff Threat: India Should Pursue Calibrated Response, Say Experts

India should pursue a calibrated response to the new US law that allows up to 100 per cent tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas, experts said on Saturday. Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings said New Delhi should primarily seek product‑specific exclusions, tariff‑rate quotas, transition periods, a phased reduction in Russian crude purchases and a clear ceiling below the statutory 100 per cent maximum. "The waiver provision in the U.S.

law creates diplomatic space; India should use it," Sharma said. He urged India to seek long‑term US energy supply arrangements, greater access for Indian pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, gems and jewellery, and relief for supply chains where US companies depend on Indian inputs. "If the US government expects India to diversify its oil basket, it should help make that transition economically feasible," he said.

Temporary interest subvention, enhanced export-credit insurance, faster duty refunds, logistics support and working-capital assistance should be targeted at firms and labour-intensive clusters demonstrably affected by US measures, Sharma suggested. India should urgently convert trade diplomacy with the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, Gulf economies and other partners into commercially meaningful market access. “Diversification must mean more than finding new destinations for the same low-margin products.

It requires higher quality, design capability, trusted standards, local distribution networks and movement into technology-intensive goods,” he added. The new American law, however, at this stage, does not mean a 100 per cent tariff imposed on all Indian exports. The law equips the US President Donald Trump with discretionary authority, subject to specified conditions and waiver provisions.

India is among the largest buyers of Russian crude, and hence the law could be tried as an instrument of economic and geopolitical pressure. The United States is India’s largest merchandise-export market. India exported goods worth about $87.3 billion to the US in FY26, against $86.5 billion in FY2024–25. Imports from the US stood at $53.5 billion, leaving India with a goods-trade surplus of roughly $33.8 billion.

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