With Sheikh Hasina out, what’s next for Bangladesh-India relations?

The neighboring countries of India and Bangladesh have shared strong diplomatic and trade relations in recent years under ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's rule. However, after the fall of the Hasina-led government, the bilateral relations between the two nations may take a hit.

In the wake of Hasina’s resignation, India pulled out all non-essential staff and families of officials of the High Commission in Dhaka as a precautionary measure as there were reports of continuing violence in Bangladesh. The mission, however, remains functional, according to local media reports.

India has made significant investments in Dhaka under Hasina in recent years. She has also been a valuable ally to India.

At the time of Bangladesh's fight for independence led by Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1971, India had been a helpful friend.

After Bangladesh was born, India remained vigilant as the new nation was somewhere between a secular democracy and an Islamic republic like Pakistan.

In the late 1970s, Bangladesh was led by General Ziaur Rahman with a rightist orientation and Pakistan was under General Zia-ul-Haq which put India's security under threat.

Ziaur Rahman was Bangladesh's key political figure who founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Following his assassination in 1981, Rahman's wife Khaleda Zia ruled the country until 2006.

It was after that in 2009 that Hasina and her Awami League party came to power, which represented a secular democracy. Under Hasina's rule minorities like Hindus, Bangladesh’s largest minority faith, felt protected.

In her regime of 15 years, Hasina rebuilt roads linking Dhaka with Kolkata and Agartala in India that were severed after partition in 1947.

She has brought the two countries closer with her efforts to build bridges, re-establish railway links and facilitate easy access of cargo ships on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries.

Bangladesh supported India in quelling rebellion in the northeastern Indian state of Assam by refusing to provide safe refuge to rebels from across the border.

Hasina has also been supported by India after her entire family was assassinated in 1975. She lived in India for years following the assassinations. After her ouster on Aug 5, there were no guesses where the deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister was headed to stay, at least temporarily.

She is reportedly seeking asylum in the West and will likely stay in India for “a few more days”, according to media reports.

Bangladesh is currently led by an interim government under Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus.

The interim government's key advisor has recently remarked that Sheikh Hasina's extended stay in India will not hurt bilateral relations and Dhaka will always try to maintain good relations with New Delhi.

Foreign Affairs Advisor Md Touhid Hossain's remarks came in response after he was asked whether Hasina's prolonged stay in India would affect Bangladesh's bilateral ties with India.

"This is a hypothetical question. If someone stays in a country why the relations with that particular country would be affected? There is no reason for that," he said, emphasizing that bilateral relations are a big matter.
The adviser said they will "always try to maintain good relations" with India.

"We intend to maintain smooth and positive relations with all ... including India and China," said Hossain, who previously served as a deputy high commissioner to India.

"(But) it is important that people feel India is a good friend of Bangladesh...We want that, we want to advance the (Dhaka-Delhi) relation towards that direction,” he continued.

Over 100 Hindus and other minorities have been killed across the country since the fall of the Hasina government. Also, there have been at least 205 incidents of attacks in 52 districts against minorities since Aug 5, according to media reports.

Currently, India's biggest challenge seems to be the return of a right-wing BNP government under Khaleda Zia in Bangladesh. Amidst the growing attack on minorities post-Hasina government, there are fears that such a government could affect the Hindu minority. Hindus account for about 8% of the country's 170 million and traditionally support the Awami League.

India has much at stake, including annual trade worth $13bn. The countries were also due to start talks for a free trade agreement.

With Sheikh Hasina out of the picture, India has lost considerable influence in the country. Although India might expect there to be no elections in this politically tumultuous environment, the potential return of exiled BNP opposition leader Tarique Rahman could prove to be a turning point in the country's political dynamics and its relations with India.