After Dhankar’s Exit, Who Will Be India’s Next Vice President?

Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar’s sudden resignation on July 21, 2025, marking the first day of Parliament’s Monsoon Session, has thrown the nation’s second-highest constitutional office into immediate uncertainty. Citing persistent health issues—including hospitalization at AIIMS in March and a fainting episode in June—Dhankhar invoked Article 67(a) of the Constitution, submitting his resignation to President Droupadi Murmu.

But this ostensibly personal decision has quickly rippled into political turmoil. With nearly two years still left in his five-year term, Dhankhar’s exit triggers an urgent scramble within the NDA—where political calculations, regional ambitions, and strategic elections (especially in Bihar) intersect. On Thursday, expectations grew that the BJP-dominated alliance would move swiftly: constitutionally, the election must occur within six months.

Constitutional Vacuum & NDA Imperative

As mandated, the Election Commission will convene the Vice Presidential election, open to members of both houses of Parliament. Until a successor is elected, the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha—likely Satyanarayan Jatiya—will chair the House. Thus, NDA and BJP must nominate a candidate swiftly, balancing constitutional stature, political optics, and alliance management.

The ruling coalition’s leverage lies in its numerical majority, giving it free rein—unless internal NDA tensions or protests from opposition blocks emerge. This is where Bihar’s fragile electoral landscape looms large.

Bihar’s Election: A High-Stakes Catalyst

Bihar is just months away from assembly elections in October–November 2025. Nitish Kumar’s JDU remains a key NDA partner, but is walking a tightrope: while JDU and BJP are aligned at the Centre, state-level dynamics show rising anti-incumbency. Pollsters suggest over 60% of Biharis want change, potentially detracting from JDU’s clout.

The BJP, clearly wary, is actively undermining JDU’s status: as RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav claims, BJP has “hijacked JDU” and is managing its internal ticket distribution. This tension suggests BJP's interest in positioning Nitish favorably rather than sidelining him—potentially even heroically—in a larger constitutional role.

Nitish Kumar as VP? A Realistic Possibility?

Advantages:

• Political seniority & stability: Nitish is a seasoned nine-time CM of Bihar, experienced in coalition politics. His gravitas provides NDA with both constitutional esteem and electoral messaging.
• Strategic timing: Elevating him during Bihar polls could reinforce NDA’s positioning as inclusive, appeasing restive JDU cadres.
• Alliance reinforcement: Handing Bihar’s biggest seat to Nitish—who retains popularity—allows BJP to show deference to JDU.

Constraints:

• State polls fallout: If JDU underperforms, moving Nitish out could risk further backlash within Bihar.
• Role transition: As VP, he'd leave for Rajya Sabha Chairman role—rebuffing a CM reelection could destabilize NDA’s state campaign.
• Health factors: Although fit for a state role, the VP’s constitutional duties may still demand more stamina.

Publicmitra’s political analysis highlights Nitish’s current alliance rapport, administrative heft, and suitability for high office. Meanwhile, supporters online have floated his name enthusiastically in early speculation.

Other NDA Potential Nominees

Beyond Nitish, several credible names are being discussed:

• Rajnath Singh: Union Defence Minister and former Home Minister with national visibility. As an experienced Cabinet stalwart, he's a natural BJP preference. His candidature would be smooth and predictable.
• Shivraj Singh Chouhan: Three-time Madhya Pradesh CM, another heavyweight with administrative success. Online speculation reflects this.
• Harivansh Narayan Singh: The current Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha—logically positioned to take over the chair; his elevation would ensure procedural continuity.
• Nitin Gadkari/Nirmala Sitharaman: BJP’s workhorse leaders from key ministries; the former’s infrastructure focus and latter’s economic leadership make them appealing as constitutional nominees.
• Ghulam Nabi Azad: Though a former Congress veteran, speculation indicates potential cross-party consensus if BJP values a broad coalition posture. But this remains remote due to partisan politics.

Each name carries strategic weight: some appease internal BJP structures, others reinforce regional optics or coalition stability.

Opposition Factor

Opposition's influence is limited: BJP’s numbers in the electoral college make NDA clear favorites. The INDIA bloc may either contest or abstain, calculating if they can force second preference votes to weaken margins. Without a surprise NDA rift, their influence will remain marginal.

Critics allege Dhankhar’s resignation may hide deeper tensions within the Cabinet. If these are real, NDA might seek a low-conflict nominee—Harivansh or a technocratic pick—as a consolidating figure.

Is Nitish Kumar a Real Contender?

Arguments against Nitish:

• Electoral risk: Leaving the CMial seat weeks before elections could intensify anti-incumbency or weaken state leadership core.
• Diminished influence: Sources like Prashant Kishor assert Nitish is now “mentally and physically” less capable and unlikely to survive polls.
• BJP dominance: With BJP asserting control over JDU, they may prefer a pure party leader like Rajnath or Harivansh to signal central control.

Arguments for Nitish:

• Reward loyalty: Despite state challenges, JDU remains pivotal in NDA’s parliamentary calculus.
• Symbolic signal: Promoting Nitish can show respect towards regional allies.
• Constitutional experience: Understanding federal-executive interplay and parliamentary procedures makes him credible for a chairing role.

In sum, for BJP to favor Nitish, the calculus must balance Bihar’s electoral volatility with the strategic goodwill it gains from the gesture.

The BJP’s Decision Matrix

In NDA’s strategy room, the decision-makers will weigh:

From BJP’s standpoint, Rajnath makes sense: he is seasoned, national, in robust health, and commands respect. Harivansh is appealing for smooth Rajya Sabha operations. Nitish’s candidacy carries political risks—but also potential alliance dividends.

Media & Public Reaction

Indian media is abuzz. Times of India reports an NDA “huddle over VP—who’s in the running?”. Latestly and others cite speculation around Nitish, Rajnath, Shivraj, Azad, Sitharaman, Gadkari, Tharoor.

As a journalist, I raise a few pointed assessments:

1. Symbolism vs. Substance: If NDA nominates Nitish Kumar, is it genuine federal recognition—or a stunt to secure Bihar votes? Watch for whether JDU gets real autonomy or tokenism.
2. Health & Resilience: Dhankhar cited health issues—will BJP evaluate candidates’ medical fitness thoroughly? A rushed decision may cost future performance.
3. Constitutional Focus: VP’s role is to chair Rajya Sabha impartially. Picks should be procedural experts—not merely political assets.
4. Political Fallout: With Bihar’s polls imminent, shifting Nitish risks leadership vacuum. NDA must plan a transition in state leadership carefully.
5. Opposition Narrative: If BJP pushes a single-party nominee, INDIA bloc could portray it as a move away from inclusiveness. Watch their stance in the electoral college debate.

Jagdeep Dhankhar’s resignation, though righteous on personal grounds, has triggered a high-stakes political game. The NDA’s nomination will reveal its deeper priorities: coalition balance vs. ideological consolidation; regional outreach vs. central dominance.

If they choose Nitish Kumar, it sends a powerful signal of alliance sincerity—though at the risk of Bihar instability. If they pick Rajnath Singh or a BJP veteran, it signals a shift toward central control and procedural seriousness. If Harivansh is elevated, NDA might be investing in constitutional decorum over politics. Each decision carries distinct messaging—both for Bihar's ballot and India’s parliamentary ethos.

At this critical juncture, the Vice President’s post is not just a seat—it's a mirror to NDA’s strategic intent, regional posture, and constitutional vision.

In the coming weeks, as the Election Commission sets dates and NDA picks its nominee, the choice will reverberate far beyond Rajya Sabha chambers—into the very fabric of India’s electoral and federal future.