Exit polls: BJP leads in Bengal, set to retain Assam; UDF ahead in Kerala, DMK likely in Tamil Nadu

Most exit polls released on April 30 project a fiercely contested electoral landscape across five states, with the BJP gaining an edge in West Bengal, consolidating power in Assam, and the Congress-led UDF poised for a comeback in Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK is broadly favored to retain power, though projections point to an unusually fluid contest.

Collectively, the forecasts reflect a broader political pattern: regional parties such as the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TMC) continue to hold their core vote bases, even as the BJP pushes deeper into new geographies. However, exit polls in India have historically shown varying degrees of accuracy, often diverging from final outcomes.

West Bengal — 294 seats

Exit polls suggest a tight contest, with most giving the BJP a clear edge over the ruling TMC in a high-turnout election held across two phases on April 23 and 29. The Left Front remains largely marginal, with projections placing it in low single digits.

Estimates for the BJP vary widely — from 95 to over 170 seats — underlining both its growing presence and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. While most pollsters favor the BJP, Peoples Pulse diverged, projecting a decisive TMC victory with 177–187 seats.

Other projections place the BJP in the range of 142–175 seats, with the TMC trailing between 95–140 seats. Praja Poll gave the BJP its highest estimate at 178–208 seats.

Kerala — 140 seats

Most exit polls indicate a return of the Congress-led UDF, though the contest with the CPI(M)-led LDF remains close. The LDF, which has governed Kerala for a decade, is projected to secure between 49–69 seats, while the UDF is estimated to win roughly 71–90 seats.

Vote share projections place the UDF at around 44%, ahead of the LDF at approximately 39%, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to remain marginal with about 14% vote share and 0–7 seats.

The projections mark a potential reversal from 2021, when most exit polls correctly predicted an LDF victory with 99 seats.

Tamil Nadu — 234 seats

In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls favor the DMK-led alliance led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, though several projections highlight a fragmented and unpredictable contest involving the AIADMK and actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Seat estimates for the DMK range from just above the majority mark at 122 seats to as high as 168. The AIADMK is projected between 60–100 seats across polls, while TVK emerges as a wildcard, with estimates ranging from single digits to as high as 120 seats in one outlier projection.

Two pollsters — JVC and Vote Vibe — break from the broader trend, predicting an AIADMK victory with over 114 seats, underscoring the volatility of the contest.

Assam — 126 seats

Exit polls unanimously project a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, reinforcing the party’s dominance in the Northeast.

Most estimates place the NDA between 85–101 seats, with some projecting a near sweep at 88–100 seats. The Congress-led alliance is expected to secure between 22–36 seats, while the AIUDF and others remain confined to single digits.

Puducherry — 30 seats

In Puducherry, exit polls indicate a clear advantage for the AINRC-led NDA alliance. Most projections place it between 16–25 seats, comfortably ahead of the Congress-led combine, which is estimated at 4–12 seats.

Some polls also factor in a minor presence for TVK, projecting 1–4 seats.