Deleted voters outnumber winning margins in Bihar’s key districts

As Bihar heads into high-stakes elections, voter deletions during the Election Commission’s ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) have raised alarm bells in three of the state’s most politically significant districts — Patna, Madhubani and East Champaran.

Together, these districts have recorded 10.63 lakh deletions — more than 16% of the state’s 65 lakh total. What makes the numbers politically explosive is this: in two-thirds of the 36 Assembly seats here, the number of voters struck off exceeds the winning margins from the last two elections.

The ruling BJP-JD(U) alliance currently holds the majority of these seats.

Youth and women bear the brunt

The deletions have disproportionately affected young voters under 40, who were asked to furnish citizenship proof since they were not on the last intensive rolls prepared in 2003. This age group accounts for 37.8% of all deletions across the three districts.

Equally striking is the gender skew. Women form 53.3% of all deletions, outnumbering men in every Assembly seat, even though men continue to outnumber women in the electoral rolls. For women, the most common reason cited was “permanently shifted”, while for men it was “deceased.”

‘Permanently shifted’ tops reasons

Across Patna, Madhubani and East Champaran, the most frequently cited cause for deletion was “permanently shifted” — voters who migrated out of the district or state. This alone accounted for nearly 3.9 lakh deletions (36.7%), followed by “deceased” (32.2%), “absent” (21.2%), and “already enrolled elsewhere” (9.8%).

In a state with one of the highest rates of outbound migration, officials acknowledge the trend mirrors social realities: men often migrate for work, while women migrate after marriage.

Seat-by-seat political tremors

The deletions map closely onto the state’s political battlegrounds:

• Patna recorded the highest deletions at 3.95 lakh. In seven of 14 seats, including high-profile constituencies like Digha and Bankipur, deletions exceeded the winning margins from 2020. In 10 seats, they surpassed margins from the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
• Madhubani, with 3.52 lakh deletions, saw youth voters hit hardest — over 40% of deletions were under 40. In eight out of 10 seats, deletions outstripped winning margins.
• East Champaran reported 3.16 lakh deletions. Here too, women outnumbered men in every Assembly seat, with Motihari topping the list at 53,659 deletions. In 10 of 12 seats, the number of deleted voters exceeded the victory margins of 2020.

What it means for Bihar’s poll battle

With Bihar’s Assembly elections looming, these deletions could prove decisive. The BJP-JD(U) combine swept most of these seats in 2020, but the deletions now surpass winning margins in dozens of constituencies.

For the Opposition Mahagathbandhan, which made gains in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the shifting numbers could present fresh openings. But much will depend on how many of the deleted voters re-enroll before polls.

As parties prepare their ground game, the silent arithmetic of deletions may yet shape the loudest political battles in Bihar.