Recent Singapore Airlines turbulence incident highlights climate change threat to aviation industry

The tragic incident on Singapore Airlines on May 21 in which a passenger lost his life due to severe turbulence, has brought renewed attention to the growing incidents of air turbulence due to climate change.

While turbulence is a common occurrence that usually causes a bumpy flight, its severity often varies from harming aircraft to injuring both passengers and crew onboard.

The recent turbulence on Singapore Airlines’ Boeing 777-300 ER caused death of a 73-year-old British man named Geoff Kitchen, and injured 71 people.

Flight SQ321, which had 211 passengers and 18 crew members on board, took off from Heathrow Airport in London on May 20 and was headed to Singapore when it "encountered severe turbulence" en route. The aircraft was diverted to Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi International Airport, where it landed at 3.45 pm (local time) on Tuesday.

Experts have long warned that as the planet warms, the intensity of clear-air turbulence (CAT) is expected to increase significantly. According to a new study, the airplane turbulence induced by climate change is predicted to triple in frequency between 2050 and 2080. This particularly means the aviation industry could also become a victim of global warming. 

The study published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, found that severe turbulence had increased 55% between 1979 and 2020 on a typically busy North Atlantic route.

CAT is particularly dangerous, because it shows no visual warning signs. Paul D Williams, an Atmospheric Scientist at the University of Reading, UK, who has been studying this phenomenon for nearly a decade, said the research has shown severe clear-air turbulence, strong enough to catapult unbuckled passengers and crew around the aircraft, could become twice or even thrice as common on some flight routes later this century.

"We've recently extended our analysis globally and that includes Indian airspace. We found that there will be significant increases in clear air turbulence over India within the next few decades. The projected increases are strongest in the northern half of India and are especially strong in the pre-monsoon season, in other words from March to May, when we estimate that there will be 100-200% more clear air turbulence by the period 2050-2080." Paul was quoted as saying by a leading national daily.

Paul explained that clear air turbulence is caused by instabilities in the atmosphere, mainly in the jet stream and especially when wind shear is strong. He also noted that climate change is strengthening the wind shear. 

"Our studies have used climate models to show that this effect will increase the amount of severe clear air turbulence in the atmosphere by hundreds of per cent in the next few decades. And that's just clear air turbulence. We need a lot more research before we understand,” he said.

Although, the aviation industry is taking steps to mitigate the risks with enhanced turbulence forecasting and pilot training, the underlying issue of climate issue must be addressed.