May to see over 110% rainfall, IMD flags storm risks

India is set for an unusually wet start to the pre-monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal rainfall across the country in May.

According to the latest outlook, rainfall during the month is expected to exceed 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA), marking a sharp departure from typical early summer conditions.

The LPA for May rainfall, based on 1971–2020 data, stands at 64.1 mm for both North India and the country overall. This year’s projection indicates that most regions are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall—offering relief from rising temperatures and potentially softening early-season heatwave conditions.

However, the rainfall distribution is expected to remain uneven.

While large parts of India may see widespread showers, pockets of east and northeast India, along with east-central regions, could record below-normal rainfall—an imbalance that may impact agricultural planning, especially for crops reliant on early seasonal rains.

In the immediate term, the IMD has warned of intense weather activity across multiple regions. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, along with parts of northeast India, are likely to witness widespread rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching 40–60 kmph until May 5.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also expected in these areas, heightening the risk of localised flooding and disruptions.

Elsewhere, the Western Himalayan region, northwest plains, and adjoining central parts are forecast to experience isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds between May 3 and May 6. Eastern India and east coast states are also likely to see similar storm activity during this period.

Meteorologists note that such weather patterns are typical during the transition from spring to the southwest monsoon, but caution that the scale and intensity of rainfall this May could be higher than usual. Increased thunderstorm activity, combined with strong winds, may pose risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and outdoor operations.

The forecast comes as large parts of India continue to grapple with rising temperatures. While above-normal rainfall could help moderate heat, improve soil moisture, and support short-term water availability, experts warn that intense bursts of rain could trigger urban flooding and crop damage in vulnerable regions.

As the country moves through May 5, authorities and residents have been advised to stay alert to local weather updates, particularly in areas prone to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.