UNESCO raises alarm as 272 million children remain out of school worldwide

The number of out-of-school children and adolescents worldwide has surged to an estimated 272 million, an increase of over 21 million compared to previous figures, according to the latest findings by UNESCO’s Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Team.

The report projects that by 2025, countries will fall short of their national education targets by 75 million students.

“Two reasons explain this upward adjustment. First, new enrollment and attendance data account for eight million, or 38%, of the increase. The ban on girls attending secondary school age in Afghanistan in 2021 also contributes to this increase,” the report said.

It further added, “Second, updated UN population estimates account for 13 million, or the remaining 62% of the increase. Compared to the estimates last used in the out-of-school model, the 2024 World Population Prospects estimate that the number of 6- to 17-year-olds in 2025 (a proxy of the school-age population) is higher by 49 million (or by 3.1%).”

The report highlights that conflicts play a significant role in the rise in out-of-school numbers but are often underrepresented in official data due to their disruption of data collection processes.

The model used in the analysis draws from various sources, including administrative records, surveys, and censuses, to build consistent regional and global education trends. However, the GEM team warned that the impact of population changes on out-of-school estimates depends heavily on the source of enrollment data.

“If the source is administrative data, then the full increase of the population is passed on to the out-of-school population because there is no fresh information on enrollment. But if the source is survey data, then the increase of population is passed on to the in-school and out-of-school populations proportionately,” it explained.

“As the model relies on survey data for many countries with large out-of-school populations, only part of the increased school-age population is estimated to be out of school,” it added.

Currently, about 78 million children of primary school age (11%), 64 million adolescents of lower secondary school age (15%), and 130 million youths of upper secondary school age (31%) remain out of school.

The report stressed that while countries have set ambitious targets to cut these numbers, progress is lagging.

“Collectively, as the SDG 4 Scorecard shows, countries will reduce their out-of-school population by 165 million by 2030 if they meet their targets. However, it is projected that by 2025, countries will be off track by four percentage points among those of primary and lower secondary school age and by six percentage points among those of upper secondary school age. In total, this means that, already by 2025, countries will be off-track by 75 million relative to their national targets,” the report added.

The GEM Team cautioned that emergencies and crises present challenges to long-term educational trend assumptions.

“The out-of-school model estimates assume stable patterns of school-age population progression through the education system. However, this methodological strength becomes a weakness in the case of emergencies and crises when school attendance changes suddenly,” the report highlighted.

“Not only can it not be assumed that long-term trends will continue, but there is usually no information or insufficient information to understand crises’ short- and medium-term impacts. Conflict hampers data collection on school participation and therefore is likely to lead to an underestimation of the out-of-school populations,” the report added.