The United States and Iran have restarted discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program after a phase of increased tensions

Iran had previously declined to engage in direct negotiations with the United States following the latter's exit from the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA). Although indirect discussions took place during Joe Biden's administration, they did not yield positive results, prompting Iran to intensify its nuclear activities.

Iran’s Nuclear Program

As a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran halted its collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the 1979 revolution. There have been ongoing allegations regarding Iran's pursuit of a covert nuclear weapons program, despite Iran asserting that its nuclear endeavors are intended for peaceful purposes. The country has enriched uranium to various levels, reaching 19.75% in 2010 and recently achieving 60%, which brings it closer to the threshold for weapons-grade uranium (90%).

Did You Know?

• Uranium enrichment is essential for both nuclear fuel and weaponry. Natural uranium consists of only about 0.7% U-235, which must be enriched for nuclear applications.
• Uranium can be enriched to different levels for use in reactors (up to 20%) or for weapons (90% or more for weapons-grade).

The 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA)

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was established between Tehran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the European Union. Its objective was to address the nuclear crisis by lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for the country agreeing to limit its nuclear activities. This included reducing the number of centrifuges, capping uranium enrichment at 3.67%, and restricting its low-enriched uranium (LEU) stockpile to 300 kg. Iran adhered to the agreement until the United States withdrew in 2018 under President Trump and reinstated sanctions. In retaliation, Iran accelerated its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60%, marking a significant advancement toward weapons-grade uranium.

Potential for Nuclear Weapons and Associated Concerns

It is projected that Iran could produce a functional nuclear warhead within a matter of months, should it decide to pursue this path, based on its current enrichment capabilities. The growth of its nuclear stockpile and the shortened breakout time have heightened apprehensions. Israel has voiced significant worries regarding Iran's advancements in nuclear technology, even threatening military intervention to thwart Iran's acquisition of nuclear arms. Former President Trump has also indicated the possibility of military action if diplomatic efforts do not succeed, with Israel being a crucial participant in any such operation.

Recent Developments

Iran has recently encountered military, political, and economic challenges, including declines in its regional influence and deteriorating economic conditions. Trump proposed dialogue, emphasizing that the U.S. cannot permit Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which led Iran to consider diplomatic engagement. Iran's willingness to negotiate was influenced, in part, by its diminished standing.

Path Forward

Revitalization of the JCPOA: This necessitates the establishment of mutual trust, the easing of sanctions, and oversight by the IAEA.

Multilateral Assurances: A wider international agreement is vital to avert breakout scenarios.

Regional Dialogue: The security framework in the Middle East should incorporate commitments to nuclear non-proliferation.

India’s Diplomatic Contribution: As a responsible actor in the region, India can promote the principles of peaceful nuclear energy and non-proliferation.