Elon Musk's DOGE has not yet achieved its objectives and continues to exaggerate its advancements

Last week, Elon Musk acknowledged for the first time that his Department of Government Efficiency was not meeting its targets.

Previously, he had asserted that his influential budget-reduction team could cut the federal budget for the upcoming fiscal year by $1 trillion, with a deadline of September 30, the conclusion of the current fiscal year. However, during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Musk revised his expectations, stating that he now anticipated the group would save approximately $150 billion, which is 85% less than the original goal.

Moreover, this projected figure may still be overly optimistic, as suggested by a New York Times analysis of the Department of Government Efficiency's assertions.

The analysis indicates that Musk's team has inflated its reported savings by including erroneous billion-dollar figures, counting expenditures that will not occur in the next fiscal year, and making speculative estimates about potential spending that may not happen at all.

One of the group's most significant claims involves the cancellation of a non-existent contract. The government clarified that it had only solicited proposals in that instance and had not finalized a vendor or a price. Nevertheless, Musk's team disregarded this ambiguity and attributed a substantial and precise amount of savings to the cancellation.

They claimed to have saved exactly $318,310,328.30.

As a result, Musk's team has initiated widespread layoffs within the government and significant reductions in global humanitarian aid. Musk has defended these disruptions by promising transparency and asserting that the group would achieve budget cuts deemed unattainable by others.

However, as the group scales back its ambitions and exaggerates its achievements, some of its supporters have begun to express skepticism regarding both promises.

“They’re merely going in circles, often citing exaggerated or fabricated savings,” remarked Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the libertarian Cato Institute. “What’s most disheartening is that we share their objectives, yet we are witnessing their struggle to realize them.”

Musk's organization did not reply to inquiries regarding its assertions sent through X, his social media platform. He has previously admitted that the group may make mistakes, but he assured that these would be rectified.

The White House press office defended the team, stating it had achieved "significant accomplishments," but refrained from commenting on specific cases where the group appeared to have exaggerated its achievements.

Last year, Musk had actually promised an even greater reduction. While he was a leading supporter of Donald Trump during the campaign, he claimed he could reduce the federal budget by $2 trillion from approximately $7 trillion. However, after Trump's election and the commencement of Musk's group's efforts, he revised that target to $1 trillion.

Despite Musk's remarks during Thursday's Cabinet meeting, a White House official suggested that this target remains unchanged.

Budget analysts have expressed considerable skepticism regarding these claims, arguing that achieving such cuts would likely disrupt government services further or necessitate significant changes to popular benefit programs like Medicare and Social Security.

Musk's organization has created an online record of its budget reductions, referred to as the "Wall of Receipts." The site was last updated on Tuesday, indicating an "estimated savings" of $150 billion.

However, the ledger contains numerous omissions and inaccuracies.

While Musk stated on Thursday that his group would save $150 billion in fiscal 2026 alone, the website does not clearly specify when these savings would be realized. Additionally, it lacks identifying information about $92 billion of its claimed savings, which constitutes over 60% of the total.

The remaining savings are detailed and linked to the cancellation of specific federal grants, contracts, or office leases. Nevertheless, these listings have been marred by data errors, which have inflated the group's reported savings by billions.

Musk's team has rectified several of its initial inaccuracies, including instances of triple-counting the same savings, a misinterpretation of "billion" as "million," and claims regarding the cancellation of contracts that had already expired during George W. Bush's presidency.

However, some costly errors persist.

The second-largest savings reported on their website pertains to a canceled IRS contract, which the group asserts saved $1.9 billion. In reality, this contract was terminated during Joe Biden's presidency. The third-largest claimed savings stem from a canceled grant to a vaccine nonprofit, which Musk's team states saved $1.75 billion. The nonprofit, however, clarified that it had received full payment, resulting in actual savings of $0.

Additionally, Musk's group took credit for canceling a supposed contract that was, in fact, not a contract at all.

This situation involved a request for proposals issued by the Office of Personnel Management, which sought bids for assistance with human resources tasks.

When government agencies announce such requests, they outline the work required. Contractors then submit proposals detailing their plans and pricing. The government may select one or multiple vendors and often engages in negotiations to lower the initial bids.

Information regarding this specific request was limited: Musk's team provided a tracking number, 47QFEA24K0008, but the Times could not locate this number in records of past government solicitations. The Office of Personnel Management refused to disclose details about the request, including the intended budget for the contract or the timeline for selecting a contractor.

Despite this ambiguity, Musk calculated the savings from the cancellation to the exact cent, later rounding the figure to a whole dollar amount of $318,310,328.