Comprehending Pakistan's Diplomatic Balancing with Iran

Iran-Pakistan Relations

Foundational Connections: Iran was the initial nation to acknowledge Pakistan following its independence in 1947.

Iran extended military and diplomatic assistance to Pakistan during the wars with India in 1965 and 1971.

Even with a common Islamic identity, relations have been characterized by significant mistrust, especially following the 1979 Iranian Revolution that shifted Iran’s geopolitical position.

Border Strains and the Baloch Issue: The 900-kilometer Iran-Pakistan border traverses the Baloch region, with Balochistan in Pakistan on one side and Sistan-Baluchistan in Iran on the other.

Both sides blame each other for offering refuge to separatist factions.

In the last ten years, there have been no fewer than 15 border skirmishes, with the latest occurring in January 2024.

Disagreement regarding Afghanistan: Iran (predominantly Shia) backed the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance during the 1990s, motivated by fears of a neighboring government (Taliban) that was a staunchly anti-Shia faction, sharing a 921-km border with it.

Pakistan has a long history of supporting the Taliban, leading to differing regional interests in Afghanistan.

Sectarian Aspects and the Saudi Influence: Pakistan’s strong partnership with Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-dominated state, has created tension with Iran.

Saudi-supported Sunni madrasas in Pakistan have promoted sectarian beliefs targeting Shia minorities.

Iran perceives this as an element of a larger Sunni coalition that is opposed to its interests.

The U.S. Perspective: Varied Alignments

After 1979, Iran has continued to be antagonistic towards the US, whereas Pakistan has depended on American assistance, especially throughout the Cold War.

After 9/11, Pakistan became a crucial US partner in combating the Taliban, benefiting from significant military and financial assistance.

US disengagement after 2021 (following the Afghanistan withdrawal) has diminished Pakistan’s significance in America's strategic considerations.

Currently, the tensions between Iran and Israel present Pakistan with a possible diplomatic opportunity to reestablish its importance in the eyes of the US.

Openly dismissing military assistance for Iran comforts the US.

What is the Strategic Significance of Iran for India?

India and Iran possess profound civilizational, linguistic, and historical connections. After gaining independence, they established a friendship treaty in 1950.

Significant milestones comprise the 2001 Tehran Declaration and the New Delhi Declaration, which enhanced collaboration in sectors such as economy, energy, education, and counter-terrorism.

Iran holds significant importance for India as a strategic ally, as it provides connectivity, especially via the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

These offer different trade paths, avoiding Pakistan and improving access to Central Asia and further.

New Difficulties

Pakistan's maneuvers during the Iran-Israel conflict illustrate a larger strategy aimed at reclaiming regional significance and reconnecting with the US.

Pakistan's juggling act consists of:

• Verbal non-military assistance to Iran.
• Utilizing diplomatic strategies to stay significant after Afghanistan.

Pakistan views rhetorical backing for Iran as a means to undermine India-Iran relations, particularly in light of India’s strategic investments in Iran’s Chabahar Port and connectivity initiatives that exclude Pakistan.

Final Thoughts

The Iran–Pakistan association presents a strategic contradiction; outwardly, they appear as Islamic allies with historical connections, yet in truth, they are geopolitical rivals, significantly split over sectarian, regional, and global affiliations.

The US element, India's strategic engagement with Iran, and the Israel–Iran conflict contribute additional complexities to this situation.

For India, grasping this connection is crucial to safeguarding its interests in Iran and preserving regional equilibrium amid Pakistan’s adjusted foreign policy.