An analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP) forecasts that aggregate food demand in India

Population Growth: By 2047, which marks the 100th anniversary of its independence, India aims to become a developed nation. It is projected that out of a total population of 1.6 billion, around half will live in urban areas.

Rising Demand: The demand for nutrient-dense foods, including horticultural and animal products, is anticipated to increase three to four times by 2047.

Reduction in Agricultural Land: To meet this heightened food demand, agricultural land is expected to decrease from 180 million hectares (mha) to 176 mha. The cropping intensity is projected to rise from 156% to 170%.

Changes in Agricultural Structure: By 2047, agriculture's share of the national income may drop to 8% from the current 18%. The average size of landholdings is expected to significantly decline to 0.6 hectares from about one hectare. Farmers are likely to diversify into less land-intensive activities like animal husbandry and fisheries. Projections suggest that livestock's contribution to the gross value of agricultural output will increase to 39% from 31%, while fisheries will rise to 10% from 7%.

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Over the last fifty years, extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods have led to a 25% reduction in agricultural productivity growth in India. The country's water use efficiency is low, at 35-40%, which is about one-third to one-half of the efficiency seen in China, Brazil, and the United States. Agriculture consumes a significant amount of water (83%), and by 2047, its demand is expected to be around 18% higher than current levels.

Agrifood Systems – This encompasses the entire network of activities, individuals, and institutions involved in the production, processing, distribution, consumption, and disposal of food and agricultural products. Key Components of Agrifood Systems: 1. Production: Includes farming, livestock, fisheries, and forestry. 2. Processing: Involves converting raw materials into consumable products (e.g., milling wheat into flour, canning vegetables). 3. Distribution: Covers the transportation and sale of food through wholesalers, retailers, and markets. 4. Consumption: Relates to dietary choices, preferences, nutrition, and health outcomes. 5. Waste Management: Addresses food loss during production or processing and waste at the consumer level.

Policy Suggestions

Effective Water Resource Management: Implementing rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge is crucial for sustainable water management. Improving water use efficiency by 10% could allow for the irrigation of an additional 14 million hectares.

Reforms in the Power Sector: Gradually eliminating universal electricity subsidies and focusing on those farmers in need can help reduce the excessive use of electricity and groundwater.

Fertilizer Sector Reforms: The current subsidy system favors nitrogenous fertilizers, disrupting the balance of NPK. Linking subsidies to Soil Health Cards can optimize fertilizer application and improve soil health. Emerging technologies like nano-fertilizers and drone-based precision fertilization can enhance efficiency and minimize environmental impact.

Climate Change Mitigation: Relying on single risk mitigation strategies is insufficient; adopting integrated climate-smart practices (such as resilient crop varieties and efficient irrigation) is more effective.

Investment in Agricultural Research and Development: India allocates only 0.43% of its Agricultural GDP to R&D, compared to the global average of 0.93%, with the private sector contributing a mere 7%. There is a need for ongoing public investment and partnerships with private and philanthropic entities.

Crop Planning and Diversification: It is essential to align crop choices with available resources and climate conditions, while ensuring profitability to encourage farmer participation. High-value crops, such as fruits and vegetables, necessitate robust market infrastructure, cold storage facilities, and financial assistance.

Alleviating Pressure on Agricultural Employment: The agriculture sector is under significant labor strain due to slow progress in rural industrialization. Encouraging agricultural startups and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) can help generate jobs and enhance the value of agricultural products.

Enhancing Market Infrastructure and Value Chains: The existing market infrastructure has not kept pace with the increasing commercialization of agriculture. Strengthening Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs), cooperatives, and contract farming can improve market access and mitigate risks.

Conclusion: The challenges within the agri-food system are complex and interrelated, necessitating a holistic approach that includes technological and institutional innovations, infrastructure investments, and reforms in incentive structures.