University of California Researchers propose a Global Treaty that could end plastic pollution by 2050

A Plastic-Free Future by 2050: According to groundbreaking research published in Science, an ambitious international treaty currently under negotiation could nearly eliminate plastic pollution by 2050. A science study, conducted by a team from the University of California, lays out multiple pathways for policymakers to address the plastic crisis, emphasizing that the right policy combinations could also significantly reduce planet-warming emissions.

“There are multiple pathways available to negotiators,” said A. Samuel Pottinger, senior data scientist at UC Berkeley’s Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment (DSE). “But it does require ambition.”

The Scope of the Problem

Plastic is deeply embedded in modern life, from packaging and furniture to clothing and medical supplies. This convenience, however, comes with enormous environmental costs. As of 2021, humans had produced 11 billion metric tons of plastic—equivalent to the weight of 1.6 billion elephants. Each year, we generate 425 million metric tons of plastic waste, 15% of which is mismanaged, meaning it ends up littering the environment rather than being recycled, incinerated, or buried in landfills.

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Without intervention, the situation is poised to worsen dramatically. By 2050, the study warned that annual plastic waste mismanagement is expected to nearly double to 121 million metric tons under a “business-as-usual” scenario.

“If you were to pile all of that mismanaged plastic on top of the New York skyline, it would rise so high it would disrupt general aviation,” Pottinger said, underscoring the urgency of the problem.

A Treaty That Could Change Everything

Since 2022, global leaders have been working on what the United Nations calls “a serious environmental problem at a global scale.” This month, negotiators will convene in South Korea to finalize the first-ever legally binding international treaty on plastic pollution.

The study “Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” aims to guide these discussions. It builds on the team’s previous work, including the Global Plastic Policy Tool, an AI-powered model that analyzes the potential impact of various policy interventions. Treaty negotiators have used this tool to assess the effectiveness of eight key strategies.

Four Key Policies for a Plastic-Free Future

The research highlights a four-policy package that could nearly eliminate plastic pollution and cut related greenhouse gas emissions by one-third:

• Recycling Mandate: At least 40% of global plastic waste must be recycled across all sectors.
• Production Cap: Freeze new plastic production at 2020 levels.
• Infrastructure Investment: Allocate $50 billion to expand waste management systems, particularly in regions with severe mismanagement.
• Packaging Tax: Introduce a high consumption tax on plastic packaging to discourage excessive use.

If implemented, these measures could reduce plastic pollution from a projected 121 million metric tons in 2050 to just 11 million metric tons. Additionally, it would slash plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions from 3.35 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent to 2.09 gigatons—the same as taking nearly 300 million cars off the road for a year.

Climate Benefits Add Momentum

The study points out that tackling plastic pollution and reducing emissions go hand in hand. Plastic production and disposal currently contribute significantly to climate change, with emissions expected to jump 37% by 2050 if no action is taken. By integrating climate goals into the treaty, policymakers have an added incentive to act decisively.

“This is not just about cleaning up plastic—it’s about addressing two global crises at once,” Pottinger explained.

Overcoming the ‘Inevitability’ of Plastic

One of the biggest challenges facing the treaty’s success is societal scepticism. Plastic has become so ingrained daily that many people view the problem as unsolvable. Pottinger and his team hope their findings will dispel this myth.

“There is a sense of inevitability that plastic is so ingrained in our way of life. How could a treaty like this ever be effective?” he said. “If nothing else, the four-policy package shows that it is possible.”

While the exact combination of policies may vary, the study demonstrates that solutions are within reach. The researchers hope their data-driven approach will empower negotiators to take bold steps.

Data-Driven Solutions for a Better Future

The study’s findings are grounded in cutting-edge tools like the Global Plastic Policy Tool. This open-source platform uses regionalized data to simulate the outcomes of different policy interventions. By providing negotiators with precise, evidence-based projections, the tool ensures the best scientific informs the treaty.

“We want policymakers to understand how much progress they’re making, backed by rigorous data,” said Pottinger.

The team’s interdisciplinary approach brought together experts from UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, and other institutions. Co-authors include researchers from both universities, reflecting the collaborative effort needed to tackle a problem of this scale.

What’s Next?

As negotiators gather in South Korea, the world watches with anticipation. The stakes are high, but so are the potential rewards. If leaders adopt ambitious measures, they could eliminate plastic pollution and make significant strides in the fight against climate change.

“This treaty is a once-in-a-generation opportunity,” Pottinger said. “We have the tools and the knowledge to make it happen. Now, it’s up to us to act.”

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By taking decisive action, global leaders could transform how we produce, use, and dispose of plastic, ensuring a cleaner, healthier planet for future generations. Keep reading at Education Post News for more updates.