Russia likely responsible for Azerbaijan airplane crash, say US officials

After an Azerbaijani minister suggested that the plane may have been hit by a weapon, drawing on survivor accounts and expert analysis, a US official said on Dec 27 that "Russian air defense systems could have downed an Azerbaijani airliner earlier this week."

Azerbaijan's Minister of Digital Development and Transportation, Rashan Nabiyev, and White House national security spokesperson John Kirby's conclusions on Dec 27 supported those of external aviation specialists who attributed the crash to Russian air defense systems reacting to an attack by Ukraine.

On Dec 25, the aircraft en route from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, turned toward Kazakhstan and crashed during the landing attempt.

The crash killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.

Officials in Russia said that a drone strike was taking place in the area where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was preparing to land, and these remarks increased pressure on the country.

In reference to an ongoing inquiry, Kirby said on Dec 27 that the United States had seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems, but he did not go into further detail.

Kirby gave the simple answer of "yes," but he said he'd "leave it at that," without going into further detail, when asked if the US had intelligence that contributed to that determination or if he was just depending on knowledgeable conjecture from specialists based on visual evaluations of the accident.

Nabiyev said that “preliminary conclusions by experts point at external impact,” as does witness testimony.

“The type of weapon used in the impact will be determined during the probe,” he added.

As the plane circled above Grozny, survivors of the crash informed Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on board.

According to flight attendant Aydan Rahimli, the oxygen masks automatically released after a single noise.

She claimed that as she proceeded to administer first aid to Zulfugar Asadov, a colleague, they heard a second explosion.

According to Asadov, the sounds resembled an external force striking the aircraft. He claimed that he had suffered an unexpected injury shortly after, describing it as a "deep wound; the arm was lacerated as if someone hit me in the arm with an ax."

Though, he refuted a Kazakh official's allegation that an oxygen canister onboard the aircraft exploded.

Two other survivors claimed to have heard explosions prior to the plane going down: Vafa Shabanova said, "There were two explosions in the sky, and an hour and a half later the plane crashed to the ground," while Jerova Salihat, another survivor, said that "something exploded" close to her leg.

Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Russia's civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said on Dec 27 that officials had closed the area to air traffic because Ukrainian drones were targeting Grozny as the plane was getting ready to land in the dense fog.

The captain was offered alternate airports after two failed landing attempts, but he chose to fly across the Caspian Sea to Aktau, Kazakhstan, according to Yadrov.

He refrained from responding to statements made by certain aviation specialists who noted that the plane may have been targeted by Russian air defense systems due to holes in its tail portion.

Grozny and other regions in the Russian North Caucasus have been targeted by Ukrainian drones in the past.

Azerbaijan Airlines blamed the accident on undisclosed "physical and technical interference" and suspended flights to many Russian airports.

It did not specify where the interference came from or provide any additional information.

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, refused to comment on accusations that the plane was hit by Russian air defenses, saying that investigators will determine the reason for the incident.

“The air incident is being investigated, and we don’t believe we have the right to make any assessments until the conclusions are made as a result of the investigation,” Peskov said.

It would be the second fatal civil aviation accident connected to hostilities in Ukraine if it is confirmed that the plane crashed after being struck by Russian air defenses.

In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 passed over the region of eastern Ukraine ruled by separatists backed by Moscow when it was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile, killing all 298 people on board.

Although Russia has denied any involvement, two Russians and a pro-Russian Ukrainian man were found responsible by a Dutch court in 2022 of helping to bring an air defense system into Ukraine from a Russian military station and down the aircraft.

According to a statement from the office of the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General, Azerbaijani investigators are in Grozny investigating the accident.

In addition to suspending flights from Baku to Grozy and Makhachkala in the wake of the tragedy, Azerbaijan Airlines said on Dec 27 that it will also stop operating to eight other Russian cities.

Flights to six Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, will still be offered by the airline. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes have previously targeted those cities on numerous occasions.

Additionally, Qazaq Air of Kazakhstan announced on Dec 27 that it would halt flights from Astana to Yekaterinburg, a Russian city in the Ural Mountains, for a month.

For the next three days, FlyDubai also suspended flights to Mineralnye Vody in southern Russia and Sochi.

El Al, an Israeli airline, canceled flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow the previous day due to "developments in Russia's airspace." The airline said it would reassess the situation next week.