Fear quake: Viral rumors of imminent Japan disaster shake Hong Kong tourism

A storm of viral disinformation is rattling Hong Kong’s travel industry, as unfounded online claims about an impending “megaquake” in Japan cause panic among would-be tourists and force airlines to scale back flights.

Despite reassurances from Japanese authorities and the scientific community that earthquakes cannot be predicted by date, time, or place, a wave of alarming social media posts — many citing pseudoscientific sources or even manga prophecy — has spooked travelers across Hong Kong.

Frankie Chow, head of travel agency CLS Holiday, has seen inquiries for Japan-bound trips plunge by up to 80 percent in March and April compared to last year.

“I’ve never experienced anything like this before,” said Chow, who also runs the booking platform Flyagain.la. “Some clients are switching destinations. Others simply won’t travel at all.”

The impact is real and measurable: Greater Bay Airlines confirmed it will cut scheduled flights to southern Tokushima and northern Sendai starting May 12, citing a steep drop in demand “amid rumours there will be a big quake and tsunami in Japan this summer,” a Tokushima tourism official told AFP.

While mild to moderate quakes are routine in Japan—one of the most seismically active countries in the world—strict building codes and emergency planning have significantly minimized disaster risk in recent decades. Still, the memory of the 2011 Tōhoku disaster, in which a magnitude-9.0 quake triggered a tsunami that killed over 18,000 people and caused a nuclear meltdown, lingers deeply in the region’s consciousness.

The current panic appears to stem from a mix of misinformation and timing. In January, a Japanese government panel updated its long-term forecast for the probability of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough—raising the odds to 75–82% over the next 30 years. A subsequent Cabinet Office estimate in March suggested that such a quake and resulting tsunami could lead to as many as 298,000 deaths in a worst-case scenario.

Though these updates are routine scientific revisions, they have been misinterpreted and exaggerated online. A Facebook group claiming to “predict” disasters in Japan has amassed more than 250,000 followers, mainly in Hong Kong and Taiwan. One widely circulated YouTube video featuring a feng shui master warning against travel to Japan has been viewed over 100,000 times.

“I don’t entirely believe the online posts, but I’d rather be safe than sorry,” said Don Hon, a 32-year-old social worker. “If a friend asked me to go to Japan in July, I might suggest somewhere else.”

Japan’s Cabinet Office has reiterated via social media platform X that earthquake prediction is scientifically impossible, responding to the speculation with firm, fact-based messaging. “There’s no reason to worry,” added Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai, stressing that domestic travel patterns remain stable.

Still, the damage may be done—at least temporarily. According to Japan National Tourism Organization figures, arrivals from Hong Kong fell to 208,400 in March, down nearly 10 percent year-on-year. While part of that drop is attributed to this year’s later Easter holidays, industry leaders aren’t ignoring the role of fear.

“People will likely realize it’s not true — eventually,” said Steve Huen Kwok-chuen, executive director of Hong Kong-based EGL Tours. “But for now, the fear has taken root.”

As the summer travel season approaches, Japan’s tourism stakeholders are bracing for the fallout from a crisis born not of tectonic plates — but of viral misinformation.