Early trends signal BJP surge in Bengal, setback for DMK; Congress leads in Kerala

Early counting trends in elections across four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry on Monday indicated significant political churn, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gaining ground in eastern India, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) facing pressure in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led alliance leading in Kerala.

In West Bengal, the BJP appeared to be mounting a strong challenge against the ruling All India Trinamool Congress, narrowing the vote share gap to around 4–5 percentage points, according to early data from the Election Commission of India. If the trend continues, it could mark a major breakthrough for the party in a state long dominated by regional forces.

In Assam, the BJP looked set to retain power, reinforcing its position in the Northeast. Early figures showed the party leading comfortably, further consolidating its influence in the region.

Tamil Nadu presented a dramatic shift, with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, emerging as the single-largest party in early trends. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, an ally of the BJP, followed, while the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam trailed. The development signals a potential realignment in Tamil Nadu politics, echoing the past rise of film personalities such as M. G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa.

In Puducherry, the BJP-led alliance was also ahead, indicating continued support in the Union Territory.

Meanwhile, Kerala — historically a stronghold of Left parties — showed the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in the lead, suggesting a possible shift away from the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Such an outcome would further shrink the Left’s presence in state governments across the country.

The trends come amid recent political debates, including opposition criticism of the BJP over the proposed Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill on women’s reservation. However, the early results indicate that key campaign issues such as delimitation may not have significantly influenced voter behavior in Tamil Nadu.

As of around 10:40 a.m., early leads showed the BJP ahead in dozens of seats in Assam and West Bengal, while in Tamil Nadu, Vijay’s party maintained a strong edge. In Kerala, the Congress and its allies held a clear lead over Left parties.

If these patterns hold, they could signal an expanded geographic footprint for the BJP, particularly in eastern India, alongside emerging regional shifts in southern states.