TMC dominates high-deletion seats as SIR reshapes Bengal poll arithmetic

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has emerged as a decisive undercurrent in West Bengal’s Assembly results, with early trends pointing to a complex interplay between voter deletions and electoral outcomes.

In the 20 constituencies that recorded the highest deletions after adjudication, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured 13 seats accounting for 65% while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won six and the Congress one.

A broader pattern across 187 constituencies, each witnessing over 5,000 deletions, reveals a contrasting trend. The BJP won or was leading in 119 of these seats, while the TMC accounted for 65. Notably, in 47 seats (25%), the number of deleted voters exceeded the margin of victory or lead, underscoring the potential electoral impact of the exercise.

An analysis by a national daily shows that within the BJP’s tally of 119 seats, 28 constituencies (24%) had deletions higher than the party’s winning margin. Significantly, 26 of these seats were held by the TMC in 2021, indicating a substantial shift in electoral ground.

Similarly, among the 65 seats won or led by the TMC in this category, 18 (28%) recorded deletions surpassing victory margins. The Congress won two such seats, while one went to the Aam Janata Unnayan Party.

The SIR process, initiated by the Election Commission in June last year, marked a departure from routine revisions by mandating fresh enumeration forms and documentary proof of eligibility, including citizenship, for all registered voters. In West Bengal, the exercise took an unprecedented turn with judicial oversight following Supreme Court directives.

A total of 60.06 lakh voters (8.5%) were placed under adjudication in the final electoral roll published in February. Of these, 27.16 lakh electors were ultimately deleted after scrutiny by nearly 700 judicial officers. Appeals from those excluded are currently pending before 10 appellate tribunals.

Among the top high-deletion constituencies, Samserganj recorded the highest deletions at 74,775, followed by Lalgola (55,420) and Bhagabangola (47,493). Despite these large-scale exclusions, the TMC retained dominance in a majority of these seats, though the BJP made gains in key constituencies such as Jangipur, Ratua, and Karandighi.

Results and leads have been declared for 293 of the 294 Assembly seats, with repolling scheduled in Falta on May 21.

The emerging data suggests that while large-scale voter deletions did not uniformly benefit a single party, their overlap with narrow victory margins in a significant number of constituencies could keep the SIR exercise at the centre of political and legal scrutiny in the weeks ahead.