Political strategist Prashant Kishor predicts BJP to have an edge in Bengal, southern states

Famous political strategist Prashant Kishor has said that BJP is likely to emerge as number one party in Trinamool Congress-ruled West Bengal in the upcoming Lok Sabha election.

In an interview with PTI, Jan Swaraj leader Kishor said the BJP has worked hard to expand its presence in south and east India over the years and may reap dividends this time.

"You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal," he said, adding that the BJP will also lead the Lok Sabha seat tally in Odisha and emerge as the first or second party in Congress-ruled Telangana.

Kishor, also known as PK, had earlier assisted Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee in her campaign for the 2021 Bengal polls that saw her return to power with a grand win.

He further stressed on the fact that neither BJP nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi are invincible.  He pointed out that the BJP had a barren phase in 2015-2016, but the Opposition missed its chances.

“I had said this a year back that for the first time, I see the BJP in double digits in Tamil Nadu in terms of vote share. They (BJP) will either be first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing, Kishore told PTI.

Addressing as to how BJP upped its game in the eastern and southern states, Kishor said the party's top leaders, including Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, have made frequent visits to these states as opposed to the leaders of Opposition.

"Count the number of visits the Prime Minister made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years, versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success," he said.

The world’s largest political party is already eyeing over 400 seats in the 520-seat Lok Sabha this election, but Prashant Kishor said he does not think the saffron party will get over 370 seats.
There’s total 204 seats in Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala in the 543-member Lok Sabha but the BJP didn’t manage to garner even 50 seats in all these states put together either in 2014 or 2019. It had won 29 and 47 constituencies respectively.

BJP has had a stronghold in northern and western India, but can only face heat in the upcoming elections if the opposition, especially Congress, makes sure that the former loses at least 100 seats in these areas, said Kishor.

He also spoke about Rahul Gandhi's reluctance to not fight the elections from the Amethi seat.
“If you do not win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, there is no benefit if you win from Wayanad. Strategically, I can say that letting that space (Amethi) go will only send a wrong message,” he said.

Following the Covid pandemic, Prime Minister Modi's appeal dipped, and the BJP lost in Bengal. However, opposition leaders failed to capitalize on this opportunity, allowing Modi to make a comeback. 
Criticizing the Oppostion, Kishor said, “if you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter.”

In Bengal, the BJP won 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections, ending a close second after the Trinamool that won 22.

However, in the 2021 state polls, the Trinamool bounced back. The BJP is now pushing hard to score big in Bengal, especially in the wake of the Sandeshkhali issue that has emerged as a key talking point in Bengal.