La Nina's uncertain arrival: IMD explains warm Oct weather patterns

The Met Office announced on Nov 1 that this Oct was the warmest on record in the nation, surpassing the 1951 peak.

The mean temperature for Oct was the warmest on record in Central India (Madhya Pradesh, sections of Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh), while the second warmest on record since 1901 occurred in northwest India (Delhi-NCR).

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the "above-normal" temperature phase may persist in many regions of the nation for the first two weeks of Nov, with a slight drop in temperature in the second week and a steady decline throughout the rest of the month.

The Met Department is unable to make a firm prediction on the type of winter at this time, as La Niña, a climate phenomenon linked to periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, has not yet formed.

La Niña formation is still predicted for Nov and Dec. A harsher winter (Dec to February) might occur if that happens.

“La Niña is usually linked with a fall in temperature in north and northwest India during winter, but we can’t forecast anything at this juncture. Research is ongoing to determine why the La Niña condition has not yet developed despite favorable conditions,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

"Latest global model forecasts indicate a higher chance of La Niña conditions developing during Nov and Dec, so we need to wait to make any forecast about the nature of winter at this stage, even as there are many other climate factors that impact the season," Mohapatra added, emphasizing the need to understand why all global models have failed.

Mohapatra provided the following explanations for the mild Oct: the absence of western disturbances during the month, the late retreat of the summer monsoon, and the emergence of four low-pressure systems.

The IMD forecasted "above-normal" maximum temperatures (warmer days) for Nov in northeast and east-central India, as well as in certain areas of northwest and peninsular India.

"Normal to below-normal maximum (day) temperatures are likely over west-central India and adjoining areas of northwest India and north peninsular India," it said.

In terms of minimum temperatures, most parts of the country, with the exception of the northwest, may experience 'above-normal' temperatures (warmer nights) this month.