A Relationship Under Strain

India and Canada, long connected through trade, education, and diaspora ties, have seen their diplomatic relations deteriorate since mid-2023. What began with the assassination of a pro-Khalistan separatist in Canada has evolved into a larger geopolitical challenge, raising serious questions on foreign policy conduct, diaspora politics, and the handling of transnational extremism.

Background: What Sparked the Crisis?

In June 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and pro-Khalistan activist designated as a terrorist by India, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in British Columbia.

By September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused “agents of the Indian government” of involvement in the killing during a statement in Parliament.

India strongly denied the allegations and accused Canada of allowing its soil to be used by anti-India extremists under the guise of free expression.

This marked the start of a serious diplomatic rupture between the two democracies.

Key Diplomatic Fallout

Mutual Expulsion of Diplomats: Both nations expelled high-level diplomats in retaliation.

Visa Services Suspended: India halted visa services for Canadian citizens temporarily.

Breakdown in Security Cooperation: Shared intelligence efforts were frozen.

Stalling of Bilateral Talks: The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations were suspended.

The Underlying Issues

a) Khalistan Movement in Canada

India’s core concern is the continued political space given to radical pro-Khalistan elements in Canada.

These groups often glorify violence and assassination of Indian leaders, which India sees as a national security threat.

b) Diaspora Politics

Canadian politicians are accused of pandering to extremist voices in the Sikh diaspora to gain electoral advantages, especially in ridings with large Sikh populations.

c) Free Speech vs Terrorism

Canada defends its actions under freedom of expression.

India argues that glorifying terrorism or violent secessionist ideology crosses the line of protected speech.

Broader Impact on Relations

Trade:

Talks on CEPA have stalled.

Canadian imports of Indian IT services and pharmaceuticals may be affected.

Migration and Students:

Uncertainty among over 300,000 Indian students in Canada — India’s largest student population abroad.

Families and businesses face delays and visa hurdles.

Tourism and Investments:

Canadian tourism to India has dropped.

Indian investors are cautious about engaging in Canadian ventures.

International and Strategic Implications

US and UK: Urged calm and a return to dialogue but refrained from taking sides.

China’s Watchful Eye: Geopolitical rivals may exploit this division, especially in Indo-Pacific diplomacy.

G7 Dynamics: India-Canada tensions have introduced unease within G7-aligned cooperation forums.

Realpolitik vs Idealism: Analytical Viewpoint

This situation reflects the tension between:

India's realist diplomacy — prioritizing national security and strategic sovereignty.

Canada’s liberal foreign policy — emphasizing individual rights and due process, but arguably inconsistent in handling extremist politics.

This diplomatic spat illustrates how non-state actors and diaspora politics increasingly shape bilateral relations, especially in democracies with large immigrant populations.

The Way Forward

Track-II Diplomacy: Use academic, diaspora, and civil society channels to rebuild trust.

Legal Cooperation: Strengthen mechanisms like MLATs (Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties) for cross-border investigations.

Depoliticize Extremism: Canada must take stronger steps to distinguish between advocacy and extremism.

Consular Dialogue: High-level meetings between MEA and Canadian officials could pave the way for gradual normalization.